000 AXNT20 KNHC 070550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 AM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front is pushing across the eastern Gulf of Mexico stretching from Florida Panhandle near 30N84W to the northern Yucatan near 21N88W. Gales have developed ahead of this front, with scatterometer showing southeasterly gale force winds from 28N- 29N between 83W- 85W. Seas will range from 12 to 16 ft. Westerly gale force winds are noted behind the front from 28N- 30N between 87W- 88W. These gales will continue through 07/1200 UTC. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight. Southerly gale force winds have developed ahead of the front from 28N-31N between 77W-80W. As the front pushes farther in the basin, gale force force winds will continue on both sides of the front from 28N-31N between 68W-80W. Seas will range from 10 to 15 ft. This is expected to last through until 08/0000 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the three special features listed below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues from 00N22W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 02S-05N between 15W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 07/0300 UTC, the cold front stretches from the Florida Panhandle near 30N83W to the northern Yucatan near 22N88W. A small secondary cold front is in the western Florida Panhandle entering a small portion of the NE Gulf. A squall line producing frequent lightning and gusty winds is noted across central Florida and the SE Gulf, from 24N-28N between 82W-85W. High pressure is building across the western Gulf, anchored by a 1013 mb high near 25N97W. The latest scatterometer data depicts southeasterly gale force winds from 28N-31N between 77W-80W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are seen across the SE Gulf ahead of the front. Westerly gale force winds are noted from 28N- 30N between 87W-88W. Elsewhere, strong to near gale-force winds are noted across the NW Gulf eastward to the cold front. Moderate winds are seen near the high. Seas are currently ranging between 12 to 15 ft near the westerly gale force winds. Elsewhere, seas range 6 to 8 ft across the central and western Gulf, with seas up to 3 ft near the Texas coastline. The cold front will have moved SE of the Gulf by late Fri morning. Behind the front, NW gales will prevail through tonight N of 27N and E of 89W, with seas as high as 16 ft. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas across the Gulf region on either side of the front. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E Fri into the weekend as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Sat, then stall and dissipate near the northern Gulf coast Sun into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure continues to dominate the Caribbean and inhibit deep convection. However, showers are moving across the Greater and Lesser Antilles. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong trades north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are off the eastern coast of Honduras, with strong southerly winds between Honduras and western Cuba. Moderate to fresh trades are seen in the eastern Caribbean with gentle winds in the SW basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are ranging from 3 to 6 ft, with seas up to 9 ft north of Colombia. High pressure centered in the central Atlantic will shift eastward into the weekend, allowing a cold front to enter the NW Caribbean. This front will stall and dissipate over the weekend. High pressure building again north of the area in the wake of the front will support winds to gale force off Colombia, mainly at night, starting late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 mb broad high near 30N42W remains in control across most of the Atlantic. The north-end of the squall line over the Gulf is seen in the extreme NW Atlantic waters from 29N-33N between 79W- 81W. The cold front remains over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico for now. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near-gale force winds N of 27N and W of 73W. Seas are ranging from 12 to 15 ft in the western Atlantic. Under the high, seas are 4 to 6 ft. High pressure has an axis that extends into the Bahamas this evening. This ridge will weaken and move east through the remainder of the week, allowing a cold front to move off the FL coast late tonight. This front should reach the Bahamas late Fri, then stall and dissipate over the weekend. Ahead of this front, S and SW gales will prevail into Fri afternoon N of the Bahamas. Behind the front, W gales can be expected through Fri. $$ AKR