000 AXNT20 KNHC 062347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 637 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front is pushing across the Gulf of Mexico stretching from FL Panhandle near 30N86W to the SW Gulf near 18N95W. As the cold front enters the eastern Gulf, gale force winds will develop on both sides of the front this evening. The gale will persist until 07/1200 UTC. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight. Pre-frontal southerly gale force winds will develop over the western Atlantic this evening, 07/0000 UTC. As the front pushes across this part of the basin, gale force force winds will continue on both sides of the front until 07/2100 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the three special features listed below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to 00N16W. The ITCZ continues from 00N16W to 01S29W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ and 180 nm to the north. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 07/2100 UTC, the cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from Fl Panhandle near 30N86W to the SW Gulf near 18N93W. A squall line is present ahead of the front from 29N85W to 26N86W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 80 nm of the front N of 24N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the front. By late Fri morning, this front will have moved SE of the Gulf. On either side of the front, gale force winds are developing N of 26N and E of 88W, which will continue through tonight. Seas of up to 15 ft are expected in the NE Gulf as well. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas across the Gulf region on either side of the front. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E Fri into the weekend as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Sat, then stall and dissipate near the northern Gulf coast Sun into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strong winds to the N Colombia and weakest winds along the coast of Costa Rica. Patches of scattered showers are over the higher elevations of Hispaniola and Jamaica. An upper level ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 78W. Strong subsidence is over the entire area suppressing convection. High pressure centered in the central Atlantic will shift eastward into the weekend, allowing a cold front to enter the NW Caribbean. This front will stall and dissipate over the weekend. High pressure building again north of the area in the wake of the front will support winds to gale force off Colombia, mainly at night, starting late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb broad high near 28N52W remains in control across the western and central portion of the Atlantic. ASCAT data indicates east to northeast fresh winds south of 18N to 06N. High pressure of 1026 mb centered near 29N53W has an axis that extends this afternoon into the Bahamas. This ridge will weaken and move east through the remainder of the week, allowing a cold front to move off the FL coast tonight and enter the Bahamas later Fri, where it will stall and dissipate over the weekend. Gale force S and SW winds are developing ahead of this front to the N of 28N and W of 74W and will persist through Fri. Behind the front, NW gales will evolve over the same area later tonight and Fri. $$ MMTorres