000 AXNT20 KNHC 061733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1233 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front is pushing across the Gulf of Mexico stretching from S Mississippi near 30N88W to the SW Gulf near 20N97W. As the cold front enters the eastern Gulf, gale force winds will develop on both sides of the front this evening, 07/0000 UTC. The gale will persist until 07/1200 UTC. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight. Prefrontal southerly gale force winds will develop over the western Atlantic this evening, 07/0000 UTC. As the front pushes across this part of the basin, gale force force winds will continue on both sides of the front until 07/2100 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the three special features listed below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 00N25W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 02S-03N between 18W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the Gulf of Mexico from S Mississippi near 30N88W to the SW Gulf near 20N97W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front N of 26N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the front. The cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Channel tonight, then pass southeast of the basin on Fri. Gale force winds are expected ahead and behind the front over the north waters E of 90W late, where seas are forecast to build to near 15 ft. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas across the Gulf region on either side of the front. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E Fri into the weekend as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Sat, then stall near the northern Gulf coast Sun into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds along the coast of Costa Rica. Patches of scattered showers are over the higher elevations of Hispaniola and Jamaica. An upper level ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 78W. Strong subsidence is over the entire area suppressing convection. High pressure located over the central Atlantic will shift eastward through Fri ahead of a cold front currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic. The front will move into the northwest Caribbean Fri then stall and dissipate through Sun. High pressure building again north of the area in the wake of the front will support winds to gale force off Colombia, mainly at night, starting late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 mb broad high near 28N51W remains in control across the western and central portion of the Atlantic. Further east, a cold front passes through 31N22W to 27N30W to 23N37W. Isolated showers are possible along the front. Southerly flow will strengthen north of the Bahamas through tonight, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of Florida late tonight into Fri. Gale force winds are expected on either side of the front north of 29N late today and tonight through Fri. The front will reach from 31N73W to western Cuba on Fri, then stall from just east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning through Sun morning. The front is expected to lift northward on Sun and gradually dissipate through Mon. $$ Formosa