000 AXNT20 KNHC 061028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 528 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front is pushing across the west-central Gulf of Mexico, stretching from southeast Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. As the cold front enters the eastern Gulf, gale force SW winds will develop ahead of the boundary Thursday evening, 07/0000 UTC from 26N-29N between 84W-86W. This will last through 07/0300 UTC. As the front pushes across central Florida and the SE Gulf, W to NW gale force winds will develop by Thursday night, 07/0600 UTC, from 27N-29N between 84W-89W. Seas will range from 12 to 16 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front will enter the western Atlantic on Thursday night. Southerly gale force winds will develop on either side of the front by Thursday evening, 07/0000 UTC. As the front pushes across this part of the basin, gale force force winds will continue to move with the front through Friday afternoon, 07/1800 UTC. Expect the gale-force winds to occur from 28N- 31N between 72W- 80W. Seas will range from 12 to 18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the three special features listed below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the ITCZ from 02S-03N between 18W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough continues to dig across the U.S. southern Plains as it moves east toward the Gulf of Mexico. At 06/0900 UTC, a cold front extends off the southeast Louisiana coast near 29N91W to 24N94W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the western and central Gulf coast, from 27N-30N between 85W-93W. A line of thunderstorms are seen right along the cold front N of 28N. A 1003 mb low is in the southern Bay of Campeche near 19N95W with a trough extending along the low from 18N94W to 21N97W. Scattered showers are seen near this feature and the front, from 19N-22N between 93W-98W. Scattered showers are seen in the waters off the Florida Panhandle ahead of the approaching front. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong SE winds ahead of the front with moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. Seas are ranging from 5 to 8 ft. The cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Channel tonight, then pass southeast of the basin on Fri. Gale force winds are likely ahead and behind the front over the north waters E of 90W today and tonight. Seas are forecast to build to 14 or 15 ft. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas across the Gulf region on either side of the front. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E Fri into the weekend as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Sat, then stall near the northern Gulf coast Sun into Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level ridging continues to cover the Caribbean. Scattered showers are seen moving across the Greater and Lesser Antilles. An area of moderate showers is noted between the Cayman Islands and Cuba. However, the subsidence from the ridging is inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data depicts easterly near-gale force winds north of Colombia with strong trades across the central basin in addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, fresh trades are seen in the eastern and parts of the western Caribbean. Seas are ranging 4 to 6 feet across the Caribbean, with seas building to 12 feet north of Colombia and 9 feet in the Gulf of Honduras. High pressure north of the area will shift eastward through Fri ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico into the Atlantic. The front will move into the northwest Caribbean Fri then stall and dissipate through Sun. High pressure building again north of the area in the wake of the front will support winds to gale force off Colombia, mainly at night, starting late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb broad high near 28N49W remains in control across the western and central portion of the Atlantic. Further east, a cold front passes through 31N25W to 28N29W to 25N36W. The tail-end of the front stalls from 25N36W to 25N40W to 22N42W. Isolated showers are possible along the front, especially along the stationary front. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds in the western Atlantic, N of 28N between 78W-80W with seas generally between 2 to 5 feet. A ridge dominates the forecast waters along 28N. Southerly flow will strengthen north of the Bahamas through tonight, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of Florida late tonight into Fri. Gale force winds are expected on either side of the front north of 29N late today and tonight and Fri. The front will reach from 31N73W to western Cuba on Fri, then stall from just east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning through Sun morning. The front is expected to lift northward on Sun and gradually dissipate through Mon. $$ AKR