000 AXNT20 KNHC 060535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front is pushing across the west-central Gulf of Mexico, stretching from central Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. As the cold front enters the eastern Gulf, gale force SW winds will develop ahead of the boundary Thursday evening, 07/0000 UTC N of 26N and E of 85W. This will last through 07/0300 UTC. Seas will range from 10 to 15 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic on Thursday night. Southerly gale force winds will develop ahead of this front by Thursday evening, 07/0000 UTC. As the front pushes across this part of the basin, gale force force winds will continue ahead of the front through Friday afternoon, 07/1800 UTC. These gale force winds are expected to occur from 28N-31N between 72W-80W. Seas will build to 12 to 18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the three special features listed below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 01S-04N between 19W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough continues to dig across the U.S. southern Plains as it moves east. At the surface, a cold front extends off the central Louisiana coast near 29N92W to 25N94W to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the western and central Gulf coast, from 24N-30N between 89W-97W. Surface ridging extends across the eastern Gulf with fair weather prevailing. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong SE winds ahead of the front with moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. Seas are ranging from 5 to 7 ft. The cold front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then pass southeast of the basin on Fri. Gale force winds are likely ahead and behind the front over the north waters E of 90W Thu and Thu night. Seas are forecast to build to 14 or 15 ft. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas across the Gulf region on either side of the front. Winds and seas will diminish from W to E Fri into the weekend as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Sat, then stall near the northern Gulf coast by Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level ridging continues to cover the Caribbean. Scattered showers are seen moving across the Greater and Lesser Antilles in addition to areas across the northwest Caribbean. However, the subsidence from the ridging is inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data depicts easterly near-gale force winds north of Colombia with strong trades across the central basin in addition to the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, fresh trades are seen in the eastern and parts of the western Caribbean. Seas are ranging 6 to 8 feet across the Caribbean, with seas building to 12 feet north of Colombia and 9 feet in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel, through Thu night ahead of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel early Fri, then stall and dissipate from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Fri night. Elsewhere, expect increasing trade winds and building seas over the eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters by Thu as high pressure dominates north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb broad high remains in control across the western and central portion of the Atlantic. Further east, a cold front passes through 31N28W to 26N35W to 22N44W. Isolated showers are possible along the front. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds in the western Atlantic, N of 28N between 78W-80W. Seas are generally 2 to 4 feet. A ridge dominates the forecast waters. Southerly flow will strengthen north of the Bahamas tonight through Thu night, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of Florida late Thu night into Fri. Gale force winds are expected on either side of the front north of 29N Thu night and Fri. The front will reach from 31N73W to western Cuba on Fri, then stall from just east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning through Sun morning. The front is expected to lift northward on Sun and gradually dissipate through Mon. $$ AKR