000 AXNT20 KNHC 051632 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1132 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1610 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the three special features listed below. ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A tight surface pressure gradient was supporting gale force NE to E winds near the coast of Colombia this morning at 05/1200 UTC. The latest ASCAT pass from 05/1332 UTC shows near gale east winds from 11N-13N between 73.5W-76W. Winds to near gale force are expected tonight, but gale force winds are no longer expected. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front currently entering the Gulf of Mexico from the Texas coast will move eastward. Gale force SW winds are forecast to develop just ahead of the front on Thursday over the eastern Gulf of Mexico from 26N-29N between 84W-88W. The gales will persist through Thursday evening. Expect sea heights ranging from 11 to 14 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A strong cold front will cross northern Florida Thursday night. Prior to the frontal passage, gale force SW winds are expected east of northern Florida, north of 29N between 73W-81W, beginning Thursday evening and lasting through Friday morning. Expect sea heights of 12 to 16 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inside the area bounded by 05N25W to 01N47W to 07S39W to 02S30W to 02N20W to 05N25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A large mid- to upper-level trough digging down over New Mexico, west Texas and northwestern Mexico is supporting a cold front over the western Gulf of Mexico. As of 05/1500 UTC, the cold front extends from near Beaumont Texas near 30N94W to a 1004 mb low just south of Brownsville Texas near 26N97W and inland in Mexico to 24N99W to 27N103W. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of the front over the north-central Gulf north of 27N between 87W- 94W. Isolated showers and broken clouds are elsewhere across the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico Mexico tonight, from near Tampa Florida to the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then pass southeast of the basin on Fri. Gale force SW winds are expected ahead of the front over the NE Gulf on Thu, with strong to near gale force westerly winds expected Thu night into Fri behind the front. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong winds and building seas across the Gulf on either side of the front. Winds and seas will diminish late Fri into the weekend as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak front may stall near the northern Gulf coast Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough that extends along 19N east of 67W is bringing isolated showers to the waters between the northern Leeward Islands and Hispaniola. Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the Caribbean Sea, leading to dry air elsewhere over the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong winds in the south-central Caribbean south of 17N between 71W-79W, with near gales near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong trade winds will persist across the south-central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel, through Thu night ahead of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel early Fri, then stall and dissipate from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Fri night. Elsewhere, expect increasing trade winds and building seas over the eastern Caribbean by Thu as high pressure dominates north of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N30W to 29N33W to 21N48W. A surface trough continues from 21N48W to 19N67W. Isolated showers are possible along the front and trough. A 1026 mb high near 29N53W is spreading ridging across the western Atlantic to the east coast of Florida. A 1024 mb high is near 24N37W. The high pressure ridge over the west Atlantic will persist along 28N into tonight. Southerly flow will strengthen north of the Bahamas later tonight through Thu, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of Florida Thu night and across the offshore waters Fri and Fri night. Gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of 29N Thu night into Fri, with westerly gales possible over the Gulf Stream on Fri following the frontal passage. The front will stall from just east of Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat morning, then weaken over the northern waters Sat night into Sun. $$ Hagen