298 AXNT20 KNHC 050604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST Wed Feb 5 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A tight surface pressure gradient will support NE-to-E gale- force winds to pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia during the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 9 to 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... .42 HOUR FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 77W S WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... .42 HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N86W TO 24N90W TO 18.5N94W. N OF 26N E OF FRONT TO 83W S TO SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST for the Gulf of Mexico: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC; the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST for the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 05N southward from South America eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high pressure center, that is near 29N60W, to interior sections of Florida along 28N, into SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 18N95W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to 24N99W, to a 999 mb low pressure center that is near 28N104W. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture northeastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are moving northeastward. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf late Wednesday morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Wed night, from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then shift southeast of the basin on Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of the front. The southerly return flow is forecast to reach minimal gale force over the NE Gulf on Thu. Winds and seas will diminish Fri and Sat as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf region. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating cold front is along 22N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, to the Mona Passage. Comparatively drier air in subsidence spans the Atlantic Ocean from 23N between 50W and 82W. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 16N northward from 80W eastward, from 75W eastward, from 16N southward from 78W westward, and from 15N northward from 80W westward. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through the week. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia tonight and Wed night. The trade wind flow will also increase across the eastern Caribbean on Thu. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel, Wed through Thu night ahead of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel early Fri, then stall and dissipate from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N36W, to 27N40W, and 23N46W. The cold front is dissipating from 23N46W, to 20N56W, toward the northern coast of Puerto Rico, and into the Mona Passage. Broken to overcast low and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers cover the areas that are from 17N to 21N between 64W and Jamaica, in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean, within 60 nm on either side of the line from 19N50W to 22N46W 24N44W 26N41W 28N36W. The current dissipating frontal boundary eventually will become weaker and it will disappear. High pressure will move eastward along 29N through mid week in the wake of the front. Southerly flow will strengthen north of the Bahamas Wed night into Thu, ahead of the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida Thu night into Fri. Southerly winds are expected to reach gale force off NE Florida by Thu night. The front is forecast to reach from 31N73W to western Cuba on Fri, from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Fri night, then stall from 29N65W to the SE Bahamas on Sat. $$ MT