000 AXNT20 KNHC 042359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 PM EST Tue Feb 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A tight surface pressure gradient will support NE-to-E gale- force winds to pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia during the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 9 to 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 25W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 04/2100 UTC, a 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N62W producing southernly return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. 10-15 kt winds are over the E Gulf, E of 90W. 15-20 kt winds are over the W Gulf. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection over SE Louisiana. The central and E Gulf has fair weather. Fresh to strong southerly winds will persist across the western Gulf ahead of a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Wed. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu morning, from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then shift southeast of the basin on Fri. Winds and seas will diminish Fri and Sat as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A weak stationary front extends from 20N60W to E Hispaniola near 19N68W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Jamaica, the NW Caribbean, E Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Wind speeds range from near gale along the coast of Colombia to 10 kt over the Virgin Islands. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 77W. Strong subsidence covers the entire area suppressing deep convection. The stationary front will dissipate tonight. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through the week. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia tonight and Wed night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel, Wed through Thu night ahead of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel early Fri, then stall and dissipate Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N62W. A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 23N50W to 20N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N-24N between 44W-48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A 1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 23N37W. The tail end of the cold front that is presently over the central Atlantic will stall and dissipate tonight through Tue. The northern portion of the cold front N of 24N will continue to move east to the E Atlantic through Thu. High pressure will move eastward along 29N through mid week over the W Atlantic in the wake of the front. Southerly flow will strengthen north of the Bahamas by Wed night, ahead of the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida Thu night into Fri. Southerly winds may reach gale force off NE Florida by Thu night. The front should reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida on Fri, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Sat morning. $$ Formosa