000 AXNT20 KNHC 041650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1150 AM EST Tue Feb 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A tight surface pressure gradient will support NE-to-E gale- force winds to pulse overnight near the coast of Colombia during the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 9 to 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to 02N31W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered showers are seen from 04S-03N between 40W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough digs over the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. Upper-level ridging extends from the western Caribbean to Florida. At the surface, ridging extends from the western Atlantic across Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, while lower pressure prevails over west Texas. This pressure pattern is resulting in fresh southerly winds across the central Gulf of Mexico, and strong to locally near gale winds over portions of the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of a line extending from 30N91W to 23N97W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are elsewhere over the basin west of a line from the Florida Big Bend near 30N84W to 21N89W to 18N95W. Fresh to strong southerly winds will persist across the western Gulf ahead of a cold front that is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Wed. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu morning, from near Tampa, Florida to the Yucatan Channel Thu night, then shift southeast of the basin on Fri. Winds and seas will diminish Fri and Sat as high pressure moves northeastward across the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the western Caribbean. Dry air is noted over most of the basin. Isolated showers are seen across portions of the Greater Antilles and northern Caribbean, north of 17N. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong trades over the south- central Caribbean south of 16N between 71W-79W, with near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia from 11N-13N between 73W- 77W. Moderate to fresh winds cover the remainder of the basin. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean through the week. Winds will pulse to minimal gale force off Colombia tonight and Wed night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel, Wed through Thu night ahead of a cold front that will move across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel early Fri, then stall and dissipate Fri night into Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is near 29N67W. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 32N40W to 24N49W to 21N60W, then continues as a dissipating stationary front to just N of Puerto Rico near 19N66W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen along and within 45 nm behind and 120 nm ahead of the front, mainly north of 22N and east of 50W. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence, to the east of an upper-level trough axis. A secondary cold front extends from 32N42W to 29N54W. Strong to near gale force W to NW winds are north of 30N between the first front and 52W. A 989 mb storm force low north of the area near 40N is generating large swell, mainly north of 28N between 38W-58W. Farther E, a 1023 mb high is near 24N37W. A surface trough extends from 23N18W to 32N24W. Fresh to strong SE winds are within 300 nm E of the trough axis. A stalled front extending from 22N55W to just north of Puerto Rico will dissipate later today. High pressure will move eastward along 29N through mid week in the wake of the front. Southerly flow will strengthen north of the Bahamas by Wed night, ahead of the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida Thu night into Fri. Southerly winds may reach gale force off NE Florida by Thu night. The front should reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida on Fri, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Sat morning. $$ Hagen