000 AXNT20 KNHC 040605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Tue Feb 04 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A tight surface pressure gradient off the coast of N Colombia will support gale-force winds, to pulse overnight, through the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet in this area. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 0509W, to 03N14W, to the Equator along 17W. The ITCZ from the Equator along 17W, to 01S20W, to 01S33W, to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 06N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A surface ridge extends from Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, to the border of Texas and Mexico near 26N97W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected in the western Gulf through Tue night, in advance of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf by Wed morning. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico on Wed evening, and from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu morning. The front is forecast to reach the SE Gulf by Thu night. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are also expected in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight surface pressure gradient off the coast of N Colombia will support gale-force winds, to pulse overnight, through the next 48 hours. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet in this area. The cold front from 24 hours ago has weakened and dissipated. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the northwest of the line that runs from the Mona Passage, to 15N76W, to the coast of Panama along 78W. Rainshowers are possible, also, from 14N northward elsewhere between 70W and 80W, and from 70W eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds, in trade wind flow. High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, pulsing to minimal gale force off Colombia at night through Tuesday night. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds across the western Caribbean Sea, including the Yucatan Channel, from Wed through Thu, as another cold front moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel from Thu night into Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N45W, to 28N50W, to 22N60W, to the Mona Passage. Precipitation: scattered strong from 22N to 25N between 47W and 50W. Widely scattered to scattered strong within 120 nm to the east of the cold front from 26N northward. A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 33N26W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward between 17W and 22W. The current cold front will dissipate from tonight into Tue. High pressure will move eastward along 28N through mid week in the wake of the front. Southerly flow will increase north of the Bahamas by Wed night, in advance of the next cold front moving off the coast of Florida from Thu night into Fri. Southerly winds, ahead of the front, may reach gale-force off northeast Florida by late Thu night. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida on Fri, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Sat morning. $$ mt