000 AXNT20 KNHC 031717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1217 PM EST Mon Feb 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... A tight surface pressure gradient off the coast of N Colombia will support gale force winds to pulse overnight through the next 48 hours. Seas will range between 9-11 ft in this area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N42W. No significant convection is related to these boundaries at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high is centered over Florida near 27N81W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds across the basin. The high pressure will shift over the western Atlantic today. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf by Wed and reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz Mexico by early Thu. The cold front will exit the southeast Gulf by Fri. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of the front, with near gale force conditions possible over the northeast Gulf on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. A cold front extends across the basin 18N70W to 14N83W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Fresh northerly winds cover the NW Caribbean behind the front. Dry air covers the remainder of the basin, with the latest ASCAT pass depicting fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean, with strong to near-gale force in a small area near the coast of Colombia. The cold front will stall and weaken through tonight before dissipating into Tue. High pressure will pass eastward north of area in the wake of the front. This will support strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean through the period, pulsing to gale force off Colombia tonight and Tuesday night. Another cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel by Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N51W to 19N69W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front mainly north of 27N. Surface ridging is building behind the front across the western Atlantic. To the east of the front, a 1025 mb surface high is centered near 30N37W. A weakening frontal boundary extends across the far east Atlantic from 31N24W to 19N28W. The cold front will stall along roughly 20N today before dissipating through Tue. High pressure will move eastward along 28N through mid week in the wake of the front. Southerly flow will increase north of the Bahamas by Wed night, ahead of a cold front moving off the coast by Fri. Southerly winds may reach gale force by late Thu night off northeast Florida. The front should reach from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Sat. $$ ERA