000 AXNT20 KNHC 021143 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 643 AM EST Sun Feb 2 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front is along: 31N72W 23N79W. Expect SW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 30N to 31N between 64W and 70W. The gale-force winds are forecast to slow down, to be less than gale-force, on Monday night, 04/0600 UTC. ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The 24-hour forecast, starting at 03/0000 UTC, consists of NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 10 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 75.5W. The gale-force winds are forecast to last for 18 hours. The wind speeds will slow down for six hours, and then the wind speeds will return to gale-force, again, on Monday night, 04/0000 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N, to 06N15W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 04N27W, 03N30W, and to 02N36W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 06N to 07N between 12W and 13W, and from 02N to 04N between 31W and 33W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front from 24 hours ago has moved through the Gulf of Mexico completely. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 26N96W. A surface ridge extends eastward, from the center, to the middle part of the Florida west coast. An upper level trough extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico to the Yucatan Peninsula/ Yucatan Channel. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. An upper level ridge is in central Mexico, along a NW-to-SE line. The high pressure, that has been building in the western Gulf of Mexico, will move eastward across the basin through Monday. This pattern will support fresh to strong southerly wind flow from Monday through Tuesday, in the western Gulf of Mexico, in advance of the next cold front. The next cold front is expected to enter the basin by early Wednesday. The next front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf of Mexico early on Thursday. The front will push SE of the basin by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the southern part of Andros Island in the Bahamas, across Cuba along 80W, to NW sections of Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 75 nm on either side of the cold front, including inland in Honduras. The current NW Caribbean Sea cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras by late today. The front will stall and weaken from Haiti through Grand Cayman on Monday. The front is forecast to dissipate into Tuesday. High pressure, building to the north of the area in the wake of the cold front, will support strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea through the period. The wind speeds will be pulsing to gale- force off Colombia at night, beginning on tonight and continuing through the middle of the week. It is possible that another cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N70W, to the southern part of Andros Island in the Bahamas, across Cuba along 80W, and beyond, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm to 180 nm to the east of the cold front from 24N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate are elsewhere, from 20N northward, within 1000 nm to the east of the cold front, especially extending from the coast of Cuba near 22N77W, northeastward, to 32N51W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area from 20N northward between 27W and 50W. A cold front passes through 32N30W to 25N35W, to 19N50W. The cold front is dissipating from 19N50W to 18N61W. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the cold front, from 20N northward. The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will move southeastward, and reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba later today. The front will weaken from near 22N60W to near Puerto Rico from Monday into Tuesday. The wind speeds will slow down, and the sea heights will subside, through the middle of the week, as high pressure that is following the front moves eastward along 29N. Another cold front will approach from Florida toward the end of next week. $$ MT