000 AXNT20 KNHC 020003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front is along 31N35W to 22N50W to 22N57W to 25N65W moving E. Gale force NW-N winds are within 26N35W TO 24N40W TO 22N54W TO 31N42W TO 31N35W TO 26N35W. Seas are 10-14 ft. The gale is forecast to end tonight on 02/0600 UTC. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front is forecast to be over the W Atlantic tonight on 02/0600 UTC from 31N72W to 27N75W to the E coast of Florida near 23N79W. Gale force SW winds are expected ahead of the front WITHIN 29N65W TO 29N73W TO 30N72W TO 31N70W TO 31N63W TO 29N65W. Seas will be 8-12 ft. The gale will continue eastward with the front and end Mon on 03/1200 UTC. ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... The N coast of Colombia presently has near gale force winds. Gale force winds are forecast for Sun evening on 03/0000 UTC WITHIN 11N74W TO 11N76W TO 12N75W TO 12N74W TO 11N74W. Seas will be 8-10 ft. The gale is forecast to then end Mon on 03/1200 UTC. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N23W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-03S between 19W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 01/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Marco Island Florida near 26N82W to beyond the W tip of Cuba near 22N84.5W. Radar shows scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of the front. Strong NW to N winds are behind the front. Broken to overcast clouds and isolated showers cover most of the S Gulf, S of 25N. The cold front will shift SE of the basin tonight. High pressure will follow the front from west to east across the Gulf through Mon, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast mid week. Expect fresh to strong southerly return flow ahead of the next cold front Mon through Tue. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to SW Gulf early Thu, pushing SE of the basin by the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from W Cuba near 22N84.5W to S Belize near 16N88.5W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. Strong N winds are behind the front. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia and weakest winds along the SE coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are moving across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 70W. Very strong subsidence is over the entire area. The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras by late Sun, then stall and weaken from Haiti through Grand Cayman Mon before dissipating into Tue. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean through the period, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia Sun night. Looking ahead, gales are possible off Colombia Tue night into Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward to the north of the region. Another cold front may approach the Yucatan Channel by the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to Vero Beach Florida near 28N80W. Isolated moderate convection is within 300 nm E of the front to include the N Bahamas. A 1026 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N55W. Further E, a cold front enters the E Atlantic near 31N35W to 22N50W to 22N57W to 25N65W, moving E. Scattered moderate convection is N of 23N between 30W- 37W. The W Atlantic cold front will move southeast and reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba by early Sun, then will weaken from near 22N60W to near Puerto Rico early next week. Winds and seas will subside through mid week as high pressure following the front moves east along 29N. Another cold front will approach from Florida towards the end of next week. $$ Formosa