000 AXNT20 KNHC 011643 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1143 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front is along 31N37W to 26N46W to 23N53W. Gale force NW-N winds are forecast to develop after 01/1500 UTC within 90 nm NW of the front, mainly east of 43W and north of 25N. The gales and front will move east of 35W tonight by 02/0300 UTC. Expect wave heights of 10 to 15 ft. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 31N77W to the E coast of Florida near 29N81W. Gale force SW winds are expected to develop tonight ahead of the front before 02/0600 UTC mainly north of 29N and east of 73W. Gales will then continue eastward with the front mainly north of 27N between 52W-70W on Sunday, then north of 28N between 49W- 62W on Sunday night. Seas will increase Sunday to 12 to 18 ft in the gale force wind area and behind the front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N18W to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 02N28W to 02N37W to 01S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 00N-05N between 19W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Tampa Bay to Campeche Mexico in the western Yucatan Peninsula. Strong NW to N winds are behind the front. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is ahead of the front from 22.5N-26N between 81W-86W, approaching South Florida. Some of these thunderstorms contain strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Broken clouds and isolated showers cover most of the Gulf behind the front, although skies are clearing now in the NW Gulf off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel this afternoon, and move southeast of the Gulf through late today. High pressure will follow the front from west to east across the Gulf through Mon, ahead of a cold front expected to move off the Texas coast through mid week. Expect fresh to strong southerly return flow ahead of the next cold front Mon through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from Tampa Bay to Campeche Mexico. Strong thunderstorms are just north of the Yucatan Channel, mainly north of 22N and east of 86W. Mid- to upper-level ridging covers the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. GOES-16 water vapor channels show dry air across the basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades between 65W-78W, with strong trades offshore the northeast coast of Colombia. The cold front in the SE Gulf of Mexico will move through the Yucatan Channel this afternoon, reach from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras by late Sun, then stall and weaken from Haiti through Grand Cayman Mon before dissipating into Tue. High pressure building north of the area in the wake of the front will support strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean through the period, pulsing to near gale force off Colombia Sun night. Looking ahead, gales are possible off Colombia Tue night into Wed as the high pressure shifts eastward to the north of the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N77W to the E coast of Florida near 29N81W to Tampa Bay to Campeche Mexico. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the cold front. Isolated showers are elsewhere within 240 nm of the front. Numerous moderate with embedded scattered strong convection is approaching South Florida and the Florida Keys from the west, from 22.5N-26N between 81W-86W. Some of these thunderstorms contain strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N35W to 23N52W to 24N61W. A warm front extends from 24N61W to 32N71W. Strong to near gale N winds are within 300 nm N of the cold front, between 40W- 55W. A pre-frontal trough is from 31N34W to 26N39W. Strong to near gale S winds are within 150 nm east of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 24N-32N between 29W-42W. This convection is being enhanced by upper-level diffluence to the east of the upper-level trough that is located between 40W-50W north of 23N. Isolated showers are along and just NE of the warm front, mainly north of 25N and west of 63W. A 1026 mb high is north of the front near 33N59W. The cold front extending from 31N77W to near Cape Canaveral Florida will move southeast and reach from 31N67W to 21N76W by late Sun morning, then from 31N57W to Haiti Sun evening. Winds are expected to reach gale force ahead of the front E of 72W and north of 27N tonight into Sun. Winds and seas will subside through mid week as high pressure following the front moves east along 29N. $$ Hagen