000 AXNT20 KNHC 011156 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 656 AM EST Sat Feb 1 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front is along 31N36W 22N65W, at 01/0600 UTC. The 12-hour forecast position for the cold front is: from 31N35W to 22N50W to 22N60W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 14 feet, from 26N to 31N between 35W and 55W. Also, expect N gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 22N to 31N between 35W and 55W. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... The 24-hour position of a cold front, based on the forecast at 01/0600 UTC, will be from 31N72W to 23N80W. Expect gale-force S-to-SW winds and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 30N to 31N between 63W and 68W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N, to 03N08W and to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W, to 03N23W, 02N28W, 04N34W, and to 01N40W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong within 60 nm to 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W and 29W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 06N southward between 09W and 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 27N81W in Florida, to 26N85W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 22N89W just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front is stationary from 22N89W, and it curves to 20N93W and to 18.5N93W at the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A squall line is from 24N to 27N between 79.5W and 80.5W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 23N to 26N within 90 nm to 120 nm to the east of the cold front. Other rainshowers are possible to the east of the cold front. The current cold front will move to the southeast of the Gulf of Mexico through late today. High pressure will follow the front from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico through Monday. This will happen in advance of a cold front, that is expected to move off the Texas coast through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Caribbean Sea. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center on top of Martinique at 500 mb, and between the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola at 700 mb. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is apparent in water vapor imagery. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent also, within 150 nm to 200 nm of the line from central Nicaragua, to 16N80W 17N70W 16N61W. The southeast Gulf of Mexico cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel this afternoon. The cold front will reach from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras by late Sunday. The front will stall and weaken from Haiti through Grand Cayman on Monday, before dissipating into Tuesday. High pressure building to the north of the area in the wake of the front will support strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea through the period. The wind speeds will be pulsing to near gale-force off Colombia on Sunday night. It is possible that gale-force winds may be measured off Colombia from Tuesday night into Wednesday, as the high pressure that is to the north of the region shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N77W to 27N81W in Florida, to 26N85W in the Gulf of Mexico, to 22N89W just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 22N from 68W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area from 24N northward between 36W and 57W. A cold front passes through 32N35W to 25N50W, to 22N60W and 22N68W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the area that is from 27N northward between 30W and 46W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 22N northward between 28W and 50W. The current eastern Gulf of Mexico cold front will move southeastward. The front will reach from 24N65W to the Windward Passage by late Sunday. The cold front will stall along 20N/21N by late Monday, and dissipate on Tuesday. It is possible that the wind speeds may reach minimal gale-force, in advance of the front E of 70W on Sunday. The winds and seas will subside through mid- week, as high pressure following the front moves east along 29N. $$ MT