000 AXNT20 KNHC 010516 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Sat Feb 01 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front is along 31N39W 26N48W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 26N53W, and then continuing to 24N59W, and to 23N67W. Expect gale-force NE winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, from 26N to 29N between 53W and 60W. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... The 36-hour position of a cold front, based on the forecast at 01/0000 UTC, will be from 31N66W to 21.5N77W. Expect gale-force SW winds and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet, from 29N to 31N between 60W and 67W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Guinea and Sierra Leone, near 09N13W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to the Equator along 30W, to the coast of Brazil near 05S37W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 29W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 05N southward between 10W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N79W, to 31N80W. A warm front continues from 31N80W to Florida near 29N82W, to a NE Gulf of Mexico 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 28N84W. A cold front continues from the 1014 mb low pressure center, to 22N90W off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, curving to 20N93W, and ending at the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A squall line is along 26N81W 23N87W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N southward from 88W eastward, and from central Guatemala to the eastern half of the Yucatan Peninsula. A squall line will move E from the SE Gulf over S Florida tonight. The current 1014 mb low pressure center will shift to the E of the area tonight. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across Florida through late Saturday. Strong to near gale-force winds in the SW Gulf of Mexico will subside, as high pressure builds in the western Gulf of Mexico. The high pressure will pass E, across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday, in advance of another cold front that will be moving off the Texas coast late on Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the Caribbean Sea. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is about 150 nm to the east of the Saint Lucia at 500 mb, and between the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola at 700 mb. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is apparent in water vapor imagery. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent also, within 120 nm to 180 nm of the line from Nicaragua, to 17N75W, to Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the south central Caribbean Sea through the middle of next week, as high pressure builds to the north of the region. The wind speeds will pulse to near gale-force near the coast of Colombia each night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will increase to fresh speeds elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea during this weekend. The wind speeds and the sea heights will increase on Saturday night and Sunday, behind a cold front that will be entering the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong winds will develop to the lee of Cuba, and through the Windward Passage, on Sunday night and Monday. The front will stall on Monday, from Hispaniola to the NW Caribbean Sea. The front will weaken and dissipate on Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N79W to 31N80W. A warm front continues from 31N80W to Florida near 29N82W, to a NE Gulf of Mexico 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 28N84W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong in the SE part of Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 30N northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 24N northward from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area from 24N northward between 40W and 60W. A cold front passes through 32N38W to 26N47W, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 26N53W. The cold front continues from the 1014 mb low pressure center to 24N60W and 23N67W. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the area that is from 23N northward between 29W and 50W. The current eastern Gulf of Mexico cold front will sweep across the region from Saturday through Sunday. Expect strong to near gale-force winds and building seas north of 27N, with minimal gale-force winds possible ahead of the front E of 70W on Sunday. The winds and seas will subside early next week, as high pressure following the front moves E along 29N. $$ mt