541 AXNT20 KNHC 010000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A gale is over the SW Gulf of Mexico near Veracruz Mexico. NW to N gale winds are from 19N-20N between 95W-97W. Seas are 8-11 ft. The gale is forecast to last six hours until 01/0000 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A 1013 mb low is over the central Atlantic near 28N57W moving WNW. Gale force winds are from 26N-28N between 58W-60W. Seas are 9-11 ft. The 24 hour forecast for the low is near 27N37W. Gale force winds will then be from 24N-31N between 35W-46W, with seas 10-14 ft. the gale is forecast to end on 02/0600 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front will move off the eastern U.S. coast on Saturday. By Sunday 02/1200 UTC, the cold front is expected to be from 31N66W to 21.5N77W. Ahead of the front, SW to W gale-force winds will develop from 23N-31N between 53W-81W. Seas will range from 10 to 13 ft in NE to E swell. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 04N38W. Scattered moderate convection along the ITCZ from 02N-05N between 16W-28W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-07S between 29W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is over the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See the section above for details. As of 31/2100 UTC, a 1014 mb low is over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 28.5N85.5W. A cold front extending SW from the low to 22N90W to 21N93W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. A warm front extends eastward from the low to the W Atlantic near 31N80W. A prefrontal squall line extends from 26N83W to 23N87W moving E. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the squall line. Key West Florida radar shows approaching thunderstorms. The low 1014 mb low will shift east of the area tonight, while the trailing cold front will sweep SE across the Gulf through late Sat. Winds are gale force off Veracruz this evening, with fresh to strong winds expected elsewhere across the basin through Sat night. High pres following the front will pass E across the Gulf Sun and Mon, ahead of another cold front moving off the Texas coast late Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging extends across the area. No significant convection is occurring at this time. Scattered showers are moving across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong easterly winds north of Colombia. Across the rest of the basin, moderate to fresh trades are noted. Seas off the Colombian coast are up to 8 feet. Fresh to strong winds are expected over the south- central Caribbean through the middle of next week as high pressure builds north of the region. Winds may pulse to near gale force speeds near the coast of Colombia each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will increase to fresh speeds over the Caribbean this weekend. Winds and seas will increase Sat night and Sun behind a cold front entering the NW Caribbean. Strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage Sun night into Mon. The front will stall Mon from near Hispaniola to the NW Caribbean, then weaken and dissipate on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two Gale Warning are issued for the Atlantic. See above. Scattered showers are over the W Atlantic N of 23N and W of 77W to include the N Bahamas. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 27N50W to a 1014 mb low near 28N57W. A cold front continues W from the low to 23N70W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N39W to 24N50W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 26N between 38W-43W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the cold front E of 66W. The low will move quickly eastward over the next 24 hours with gale force winds. A stronger cold front will sweep across the W Atlantic Sat through Sun. Gale force winds will be ahead of this front on Sun. Winds and seas will subside over the W Atlantic early next week as high pressure follows. $$ Formosa