000 AXNT20 KNHC 311142 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 AM EST Fri Jan 31 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front has entered into the NW Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force NW-N winds and seas up to 9 feet are forecast to develop offshore of Veracruz, Mexico by this afternoon at 1800 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough crosses the prime meridian to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02N39W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 300 nm south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Africa. Scattered to moderate isolated strong convection is also seen from 07S-02N between 26W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is forecast for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See the section above for details. A developing cold front extends south from the 1014 mb low pressure near 28N90W to 24N96W. A trough continues south of 24N96W to a second low pressure near 20N96W. A warm front extends east of the 1014 mb low to 29N85W. ASCAT data shows NE moderate to fresh winds in the northwest Gulf behind the front and easterly moderate winds ahead of the boundary. Scattered moderate convection is present in the vicinity of the front with broken to overcast conditions across much of the basin. Easterly light winds prevail across the SE. A surface trough is noted over the Yucatan Peninsula from 23N87W to 16N90W but with very limited convection. The developing cold front will shift east of the area through tonight, with the trailing cold front moving across the Gulf through late Sat. Winds may reach gale force off Veracruz late today behind the front. High pressure will follow the front from west to east early in the week, ahead of another cold front moving off the Texas coast late Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening stationary front extends from southwest Cuba near 22N81W to the coast of Belize near 17N87W. Scattered showers are grdually dissipating in the area. Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly trades across the Central and the SW caribbean while light to gentle winds prevail east of the front. An area of moderate to fresh winds prevail over the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong winds are expected near the coast of Colombia through the middle of next week as high pressure builds north of the region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds will increase to fresh speeds over the Caribbean this weekend. Winds and seas will increase Sat night and Sun behind a cold front entering the northwest Caribbean. The front will stall and weaken by Mon from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras before dissipating Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is forecast in the western Atlantic. See the section above for details. A weak 1015 mb low is seen 80 nm NE of the Bahamas near 27N75W. To the east, a 1010 mb surface low is centered over the west Atlantic near 28N53W. A cold front extends south from the low to the central Bahamas near 23N75W, then weakens near W Cuba. A warm front extends to the east to near 28N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen north of 25N to 30N between 54W-61W. A surface trough is noted in scatterometer data extending from 28N47W to 22N56W with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough axis. To the east, surface ridging is across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 26N32W. To the east of the high, a surface trough is very well depicted east of Africa from 30N23W to 21N22W. No significant convection is seen at this time near the trough. The cold front will stall and dissipate through late today. A stronger cold front will sweep across the region Sat through Sun, resulting in near gale force westerly winds and building seas north of 28N. High pressure will move eastward along roughly 29N early in the week following the front. $$ MMTorres