000 AXNT20 KNHC 301744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1244 PM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. Gale- force NW-N winds and seas up to 9 feet are expected offshore of Veracruz Mexico on 31/1800 UTC Fri evening. Gale-force winds are forecast to last six hours. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... As of 30/1500 UTC a 1008 mb low is centered off the coast of Florida near 29.5N75W. Gale-force winds are within 60 nm of the NW quadrant with seas to 12 ft. Winds are forecast to be below gale on 31/0000 UTC this evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N- 06N between 07W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-04S between 26W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is forecast for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See above. A cold front is presently exiting the Straits of Florida. Radar imagery shows lingering scattered showers over the Straits of Florida. A 1016 mb high is centered over the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N93W. 10 kt winds are in the vicinity of the high. 15-20 kt NE winds are over the NE Gulf. Radar imagery also shows scattered showers along the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 88W. Broken high cloud is over the N Gulf N of 25N. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. A low will form on the front over the NW Gulf on Fri, and move to the NE Gulf Fri night. Increasing northerly winds and building seas are expected across much of the basin through Sat night. A brief period of gale force NW winds will develop near the coast of Veracruz on Fri evening west of the front. High pressure will pass eastward across the northern Gulf Sun into early Mon. Southerly return flow will strengthen off the Texas coast Mon and Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 30/1500 UTC a cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N81W to the coast of Belize near 18N88W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Only 10 kt winds are noted along the front. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the majority of the Caribbean, E of the front. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 77W. The remainder of the Caribbean has zonal flow. Very strong subsidence overs the entire Caribbean. Tradewinds will increase to fresh this weekend. Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia this weekend into early next week as high pressure builds north of the region. Winds and seas will increase across the NW Caribbean Sat into Sun as a cold front moves over the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 30/1500 UTC a 1008 mb low is centered off the coast of Florida near 29.5N75W with gale force winds. See above. A cold front extends S from the low to W Cuba near 23N81W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the low. Scattered moderate convection is E of the front from 25N-27N between 71W-75W. The tail end of a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 21N64W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N09W. Of note in the upper levels, a small trough is over the Canary Islands producing showers. A gale low off the coast of Florida near 29.5N75W will track eastward across the northern waters through early Fri. Winds will be below gale this evening. A strong cold front will sweep across the region Sat through Sun, resulting in near gale force westerly winds and building seas across the northern waters on Sun. $$ Formosa