000 AXNT20 KNHC 300603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... Low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf Friday and pull a cold front across the region through the weekend. Behind the front, gale-force NW-N winds and seas up to 9 feet are expected offshore of Veracruz Mexico Saturday afternoon. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 05N10W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 00N46W to the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen 260 nm south of the monsoon trough between the coast of Liberia to 18W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 200 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See above. As of 30/0300 UTC, a 1011 mb low is over the NE Gulf near 28N84W. An occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 26N83W with a warm front to the east into Marco Island, FL and to the southwest a cold front continues to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N86W. A surface trough extends west of the low pressure to 29N88W. Most of the showers and tstorms are east of the front along Key West and South of Lake Okeechobee. A potent mid-level trough over the northern Gulf Coast is supporting these features. High surface pressure and drier air are over the western and northern Gulf behind the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong NW winds covering the Gulf of Mexico behind the front west of 88W. A 1011 mb low pressure will continue moving eastward across the far NE Gulf through the evening hours, and will cross northern Florida tonight. Its associated cold front will exit the basin by early Thu. The next low pressure system will develop over the northern Gulf on Fri and extend a cold front across the region through the weekend, resulting in increasing northerly winds and building seas across much of the Gulf waters through Sat night. Gale force northerly winds will develop near the coast of Veracruz on Fri afternoon and continue through early Sat. High pressure will build across the northern Gulf on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 23N83W to 21N86W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean in the Yucatan Channel north of 18N and west of 83W. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen over portions of Panama and Costa Rica and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, relatively dry air covers the basin due to broad mid-level ridging. The latest ASCAT pass from late Wed morning shows generally gentle winds across most of the basin. Weak high pressure north of the region will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean through Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia this weekend as high pressure builds north of the area. Winds and seas will increase over the NW Caribbean Sat through Sun night as a cold front moves across the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers are occurring over the western Atlantic to the east of Florida and Georgia, ahead of a low pressure system currently over central Florida. A warm front extends southeast into the western Atlantic to 27N78W. The low will move across into the Atlantic then track eastward across the Atlantic waters east of Florida through Thu night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to the waters north of the northwest Bahamas. Farther E, A cold front extends from 31N42W to 26N49W to 23N57W. A surface trough continues to 18N20W near St. Martin. Scattered moderate convection are in the vicinity of the trough and the front and within 100 nm SE ahead of the front north. Elsewhere, troughing over the far E Atlantic is leading to scattered showers from 20N to the Canary Islands between the west coast of Africa and 20W. A low pressure system will move into the Atlantic tonight, then track eastward across the northern waters through Thu night. A strong cold front will sweep across the region Sat through Sun, resulting in increasing winds to gale force and building seas across the SW N Atlantic on Sun. $$ MMTorres