000 AXNT20 KNHC 292334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 PM EST Wed Jan 29 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... Low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf Friday and pull a cold front across the region through the weekend. Behind the front, gale-force NW to N winds are expected offshore of Veracruz Mexico Saturday afternoon. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01N26W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated to scattered strong convection is seen over Brazil and offshore from 03.5S-01N between 43W-52W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 06W-20W, and from 04S-01S between 27W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See above. As of 29/2100 UTC, a 1008 mb low is over the NE Gulf near 29N85.5W. A cold front extends from the low to 22N90W to 18N95W. A stationary front extends from the low to near Orlando Florida. A surface trough extends W-NW from the low to near Waveland Mississippi. A potent mid-level trough over the northern Gulf Coast is supporting these features. Another surface trough is about 120 nm ahead of the cold front, oriented from 24N84W to 18N91W. Areas of isolated to scattered moderate with locally strong convection are seen inside the area enclosed by the points 28N82W to 24N80W to 18N89W to 21N89W to 27N86W to 28N82W. Higher surface pressure and drier air are over the western and northern Gulf behind the front. The latest ASCAT pass from late Wed morning shows strong NW winds covering the Gulf of Mexico behind the front. These winds will be diminishing this evening. The 1008 mb low over the NE Gulf will track eastward across northern Florida tonight. Its associated cold front will reach from near central Florida to the Yucatan Channel tonight, then exit the basin on Thu. Another low pressure will develop over the northern Gulf on Fri and pull a cold front across the region through the weekend, resulting in increasing northerly winds and building seas across much of the Gulf waters through Sat night. High pressure will build across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 24N84W to 18N91W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is over the NW Caribbean north of 20N and west of 84W, including over the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen over portions of Panama and Costa Rica. Elsewhere, relatively dry air covers the basin due to broad mid-level ridging. The latest ASCAT pass from late Wed morning shows generally gentle winds across most of the basin. Weak high pressure north of the region will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean through Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia this weekend as high pressure builds north of the area. Winds and seas will increase over the NW Caribbean Sat through Sun night as a cold front moves across the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers are occurring over the western Atlantic to the east of Florida and Georgia, ahead of a low pressure system currently over the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The low will move across northern Florida tonight, then track eastward across the Atlantic waters east of Florida through Thu night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to the waters north of the northwest Bahamas. Farther E, A cold front extends from 32N45W to 24N58W, dissipating to 22N65W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm ahead of the front north of 28N and east of 49W. Scattered showers are elsewhere ahead of the front from 22N-29N between 35W-55W. A surface trough is from 22N58W to 18N63W with isolated showers. Elsewhere, troughing over the far E Atlantic is leading to scattered showers from 20N to the Canary Islands between the west coast of Africa and 20W. In the extended forecast for the west Atlantic, a strong cold front will sweep across the region Sat through Sun, resulting in increasing winds and building seas north of 25N between 50W-80W. Winds near gale force and seas in the 12-18 ft range are possible Sat night through Sun night, especially north of 27N and east of 78W. $$ Hagen