000
AXNT20 KNHC 291105
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EST Wed Jan 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia 
near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 01S41W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 01S-06N between 10W-17W. 
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends south from a 1010 mb low pressure centered 
near 28N92W to near Tampico to 22N97W. A warm front extends east 
from the low to 28N89W. A potent occluded low that is prevalent 
from the surface to 400 mb is centered near the Texas/Oklahoma 
border. This system is driving the aforementioned fronts. 
Scattered showers and strong tstorms are seen ahead of the front.
To the south, scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the Bay 
of Campeche. Surface trough extends from 22N87W to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Moderate to fresh wind speeds are present behind the 
front in the northwest portion of the Gulf.

The cold front associated with weak low pressure will reach from 
central Florida to the Yucatan Channel tonight, then exit the 
basin Thu. Fresh to strong northwesterly winds are expected west 
of the front. Another cold front will move across the Gulf Thu 
night through Sat, followed by fresh northerly winds. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid- to upper-level anticyclonic wind flow spans the 
Caribbean Sea. Weak pressure gradient remains in place across 
the basin with light and gentle winds prevailing. Isolated to 
scattered showers are noted over Costa Rica. A surface trough 
extends over W Cuba, with minimal shower activity noted. Scattered
showers and tstorms are present across the Greater Antilles and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. Elsewhere, the weather is relatively 
quiet.

Weak high pressure north of the region will maintain gentle to 
moderate trade winds across most of the basin through Thu night. 
Strong to near gale force winds are expected to develop near the 
coast of Colombia this weekend as high pressure builds north of 
the area. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W to 24N67W and begins to weaken 
to 24N73W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along the cold front.
Strong winds are on the north side of the front, north of 27N. 
Farther E, an area of upper-level divergence over the central 
Atlantic is inducing scattered showers north of 25N between 36W- 
45W. A sharp upper-level trough along 25W extending southward is 
responsible for some scattered showers seen from 14N- 25N between 
18W-25W, including over the Cape Verde Islands.

The weakening cold front east of the Bahamas will dissipate east 
of the area later today. A weak low pressure system will move 
across northern Florida tonight, and track eastward across the 
area through Thu night. Another cold front will move east of 
Florida on Sat, with strong southerly winds expected ahead of the 
front in northern waters Sat through Sun.

$$
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER