000 AXNT20 KNHC 272317 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Africa near 12N17W to 07N22W. The Intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 07N122W to along the equator between 30W and 40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 02N between 21W and 24W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 04N between 37W and 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb low pressure is centered near 28N85W with a trailing cold front extending SW through 21N90W to the coast of Mexico near 19N97W, and a warm front extending eastward to near Tampa Bay, Florida. Scattered showers are occurring SE of the front to the E of 87W in the SE Gulf to across the Straits of Florida, while earlier thunderstorms have dissipated. An area of fresh to strong winds were noted on the NW side of the low, with mainly moderate winds elsewhere behind the front. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds were noted ahead of the front. The low will track eastward through tonight, then E-SE, reaching S Florida by early Tue while the front sags S and slowly dissipates. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue night, weakening by the time it reaches the SE Gulf Wed night ahead of a third front, which may impact the basin by the end of the week and into the weekend. That front is expected to be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds, and building seas of 7-11 ft, highest over the western Gulf CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough was analyzed from near Puerto Rico to near the Guajira Peninsula. Scattered showers were noted over SE Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Elsewhere across the basin, no significant surface features were noted with only the occasional area of isolated showers. The trough is forecast to gradually dissipate through Tue night. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure is forecast to prevail across the region, which will maintain rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds. The except will be fresh winds near the coast of Colombia during the afternoons and night time hours through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Thu night through Fri night and continuing into the early part of the weekend. Seas will build to 8-11 ft in the SW Caribbean as a result of those increasing winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from near 31N64W to the central Bahamas with showers noted in the vicinity of the front. This front will slowly move E while dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate winds were noted over the offshore waters along with fairly low seas. Over the eastern Atlantic, a dissipating stationary front was noted from near 31N36W to 20N58W with scattered showers and thunderstorms noted N of 24N and within 120 nm E of the front. Weak 1017 mb high pressure was analyzed between these two frontal boundaries. Another cold front will move into the waters E of Florida portion tonight, eventually stalling along 26N by mid-week and then lifting northward. Fresh to strong winds will accompany this next front, along with building seas. Low pressure will move across northern Florida Wed, emerge off the coast Wed night, then track E across the area through Thu night. Fresh to near gale force winds are forecast to accompany the low. A weak high pressure ridge will nose SW into the area Fri and Fri night as a stationary front forms along the northeast Florida coast. $$ Lewitsky