000 AXNT20 KNHC 261724 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1224 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges offshore of Liberia near 05N09W then continues to 03N14W. The ITCZ extends from 03N14W to 01N25W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are from 00N-04N between 13W-27W, and from 01S- 05N between 44W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front had emerged off the coast of Texas and extends from 29N95W to 27N97W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 28N94W to 23N98W, while a warm front extends from 28N92W inland over southwestern Louisiana. Moderate west to northwest winds are west of the pre-frontal trough. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are between the trough and 92W. Light to moderate anticyclonic flow is over the remainder of the central and eastern Gulf around high pressure centered over the southeastern United States. The warm front and associated upper-level trough are supporting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms over the north central Gulf N of 28N, and within 60 n mi of the pre- frontal trough. Low pressure along the coast of Texas will move eastward through tonight across into the northern central Gulf, then southeast into south Florida. A trailing frontal boundary will follow, and stall from southwest Florida to the south central Gulf by early Tue, before dissipating late Tue. The pattern will repeat by mid week as a second low pressure and associated cold front moves off Texas through the north central Gulf, and through south Florida by late Wed. Looking ahead, the second front will stall and dissipate over the southeast Gulf by late Thu, ahead of a third, weaker front stalling over the northeast Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Light to moderate winds dominate the Caribbean basin, except where fresh northeasterly winds are occurring near the coast of Colombia. A weak surface trough extends from 11N69W to 17N67W and is supporting scattered showers within 90 n mi of the trough axis. Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh winds near the coast of Colombia during the afternoons and night time hours through Wed, increasing to fresh to strong speeds on Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to Abaco Island, then transitions to a stationary front to the northern coast of Cuba near 23N81W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Another cold front is over the central Atlantic extending from 31N46W to 18N59W. Scattered showers are also within 60 nm of this front. A surface trough is analyzed along 54W from 15N- 20N. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of this trough. To the east, a surface ridge prevails, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 30N22W. The weak front extending from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba will drift east and dissipate through Mon. A series of cold fronts will move across the area during the upcoming week. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over the waters near the Bahamas and S Florida Mon through Tue night, and possibly later in the week. Multiple sets of northerly swell will propagate through the NE portion of the basin during this upcoming week, with the most significant one expected Tue into early Wed. $$ Latto