000
AXNT20 KNHC 251029
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
528 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 00N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from
2N-4N between 25W-33W, and from 1N-1S between 40W-43W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 
29N94W. A cold front extends from central Florida near 29N81W to 
the SE Gulf near 24N84W to the south central Gulf near 22N90W. 
Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the Straits of Florida.
The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh northerly winds behind the 
front with gentle to moderate variable winds across the remainder 
of the basin. 

In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with mostly strong 
subsidence. Upper level moisture is, however, over the SE Gulf, 
S Florida, W Cuba, and the N Yucatan Peninsula.  

The cold front will stretch from the Florida Keys to the Yucatan 
peninsula later today. The front will lift northward over the 
central Gulf on Sun as a warm front, ahead of a low pressure 
system moving off the Texas coast. The low and a trailing cold 
front will move eastward into the SW Gulf Mon and weaken. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front is over the Leeward Islands
from 19N60W to 17N70W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the
front to include Puerto Rico, and E Hispaniola. Elsewhere, 
scattered showers are over the Gulf of Honduras, and the coasts of
Costa Rica, and W Panama. Scatterometer data depicts light to 
gentle trades prevailing across the basin.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate today. Benign 
marine conditions will prevail the rest of the forecast period as
a weak pressure gradient dominates the area. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1008 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 31N60W. A cold front 
enters the waters near 31N53W and extends to 26N64W to the 
Leeward Islands near 19N60W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E
of the front. A 1026 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 33N30W.

On note in the upper levels, an upper level low is over the E
Atlantic near 23N25W. Scattered showers are over the Cape Verde
Islands. 

Lingering moderate to fresh northerly winds behind a front east 
of the area will gradually diminish today, while large seas will 
continue to propagate SE and subside through Sun. A weak cold 
front will move off the southeast U.S. coast this morning, reach 
from Bermuda to western Cuba on Sun, then dissipate Mon night. 
Looking ahead, a weak low along a front will move across south 
Florida to the Bahamas early next week. 

$$
Formosa