000
AXNT20 KNHC 250525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1225 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 
08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 00N30W to the
coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from
2N-4N between 25W-33W, and from 1N-1S between 40W-43W.  

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 29N94W.
A cold front extends from N Florida near 30N83W to the SE Gulf near
25N86W to the SW Gulf near 22N84W. The front is now mostly void 
of precipitation. The latest ASCAT pass depicts fresh northerly 
winds behind the front with gentle to moderate variable winds 
across the remainder of the basin. 

In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with mostly strong 
subsidence. Upper level moisture is, however, over the SE Gulf, 
S Florida, W Cuba, and the N Yucatan Peninsula.  

The cold front will stretch from SW Florida to the Bay of 
Campeche by early Sat. The front will lift N over the western Gulf
through late Sun as a warm front, ahead of a low pres system 
moving off the coast of Texas Sun. The low and a trailing cold 
front will move into the SW Gulf Mon as the low pres weakens. 
Looking ahead, another weak low pres area will move off the Texas 
coast Tue, shifting E-SE through Wed night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front is over the Leeward Islands
from 20N60W to 15N70W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of 
the front to include Puerto Rico, and E Hispaniola. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over the Gulf of Honduras, and the coasts of
Costa Rica, and W Panama. Scatterometer data depicts light to 
gentle trades prevailing across the basin.

The stationary front will gradually dissipate tonight. Benign 
marine conditions will prevail the rest of the forecast period as 
a weak pressure gradient dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1007 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 31N60W. A cold front 
enters the waters near 31N56W and stretches SW to the Leeward 
Islands near 20N60W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E of the
front. A 1027 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 33N29W.

On note in the upper levels, an upper level low is over the E
Atlantic near 23N25W. Scattered showers are over the Cape Verde
Islands. 

The cold front over the W Atlantic will stall and weaken tonight.
Lingering moderate fresh northerly winds behind the front will 
gradually diminish this evening while large seas will continue to 
propagate SE and subside this weekend. Another cold front will 
move off the southeast U.S. coast Saturday morning, reach from 
Bermuda to western Cuba on Sunday, then weaken Monday. Looking 
ahead, a weak low along a front will move across south Florida to 
the Bahamas early next week. 

$$
Formosa