000 AXNT20 KNHC 231204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A 1002 mb low pressure center is near 28N67W, in the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from the low pressure center to 19N70W. The forecast is for the low pressure center to deepen during the next few days, and to move to the north of the forecast area, at 24 hours. Expect NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 18 feet, from 28N to 31N between 61W and 75W, for the next 24 hours. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 03N, to 04N08W, to 03N13W. The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 01N18W, to 03N30W, to 02N36W, and to 01N40W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 09W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, to north central Honduras. Strong S winds are expected in the NW Gulf of Mexico today, in advance of a cold front that will pass the TX coast this evening. The front will stretch from N of Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche by Friday evening. The front will move SE of the Gulf on Saturday evening. Fresh N winds are expected behind the front. It is likely that the next cold front may enter the NW Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through east central Hispaniola near 19N70W, to 14N75W, to 10N80W, to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. An inverted surface trough extends from 16N72W to the coast of Colombia at the Peninsula de la Guajira. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered stratiform clouds and possible rainshowers are to the northwest of the cold front. Some cells of precipitation are moving from interior sections of Costa Rica and Panama into the coastal waters of those countries. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, through the Yucatan Channel, to north central Honduras. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.01 in Guadeloupe. The current cold front will stall later today, and it will dissipate tonight. Fresh N winds are expected today across the western Caribbean Sea, behind the front. from Friday through early next week: benign marine conditions will prevail as a weak pressure gradient dominates the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1002 mb low pressure center is near 28N67W. A cold front extends from the 1002 mb low pressure center, to 25N67W, to east central Hispaniola near 19N70W, to 14N75W, to 10N80W, to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. A warm front extends northeastward, away from the 1002 mb low pressure center, beyond 32N60W. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 25N72W. A surface trough curves away from the 1008 mb low pressure center, to the central Bahamas near 24N75W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong within 480 nm to the east of the 1002 mb low pressure center and cold front, from 20N northward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.20 in Bermuda. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 30N northward from 30W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 38N09W, along the coast of southern Portugal. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N34W, about 865 nm to the west of the western part of the Canary Islands. A trough extends from the cyclonic center to 10N29W. A surface trough curves away from a 1016 mb low pressure center, that is near 26N34W, to 26N32W, to 20N34W, and to 16N37W. A second surface trough is along 14N42W 10N50W. A separate surface trough extends from a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 25N41W, to 26N46W, and to 30N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 24N to 29N between 28W and 36W. Low pressure of 1005 mb, to the E of the Bahamas early this morning, will move NE toward Bermuda by this evening, then away from the region on Friday. Gale-force winds, to the N and W of the 1005 mb low pressure center, will prevail through Friday morning, before N winds begin to diminish. Very large seas from the winds, and swell generated by the winds, will propagate across much of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Friday, and then slowly subside this weekend. A cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Saturday morning, then reach a Bermuda to central Bahamas to western Cuba line by Sunday. This front should pass through at least northern sections of the area into Monday. $$ mt