000 AXNT20 KNHC 230524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A 1003 mb low pressure center is near 27.5N66.5W, in the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from the low pressure center to 20N70W. The forecast is for the low pressure center to deepen during the next few days, and to move to the north of the forecast area, at 24 hours. Expect N-to-NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 21 feet, from 28N to 31N between 63W and 75W, for the next 24 hours. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 06N09W to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 01N20W, to 02N34W, and to 01N37W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 05W and 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend, into the east central Gulf of Mexico, beyond the Yucatan Chanel, and into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. High pressure, extending from the SE United States southward to the Yucatan Peninsula, will slide E tonight with strong S return flow in the western Gulf of Mexico, persisting into Thursday. A cold front will move off the TX coast on Thursday night, stretching from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by Friday evening, weakening as it moves SE of the Gulf by Saturday night. High pressure again will extend southward across the central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. The high pressure will shift E into early next week, as low pressure and attendant frontal boundaries may develop in the western and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through central Hispaniola, to 15N76W, to the border area of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 240 nm to the northwest of the front, and elsewhere between 70W and 80W in the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.01 in Guadeloupe. The current cold front, will extend from near the Mona Passage to western Panama by early Thursday. The front will weaken, as it stalls from near Puerto Rico to eastern Panama on Thursday night. Fresh to strong N winds and higher seas are expected to the W of the front through later tonight. N swell prevailing E of the Windward Islands will subside later tonight. More benign conditions will prevail as a weak pressure gradient prevails in the area, for the weekend into early next week ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N58W, to 30N63W. The front is stationary from 30N63W to a triple point that is near 28N72W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 27N75W. An occluded front extends from the low pressure center to 28N72W. A cold front continues from the triple point, across the central Bahamas and SE Cuba, to north central Nicaragua. A surface trough is 330 nm to the E of the cold front, from Hispaniola to 26N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong, from 21N northward from 54W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 23/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.20 in Bermuda. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area to the north of the line that passes through 32N31W to the Canary Islands. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 38N10W, off the coast of southern Portugal. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N35W, about 900 nm to the west of the Canary Islands. A trough extends from the cyclonic center to 10N35W. A surface trough curves away from a 1014 mb low pressure center, that is near 28N34W, to 26N31W, and to 18N37W. A shear line continues from 18N37W, to 11N50W, and to St. Vincent and the Grenadines in the SE Caribbean Sea islands. A second surface trough extends from a 1018 mb low pressure center that is near 26N41W, to 25N44W, and to 26N47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N to 30N between 29W and 36W. A complex low pressure center, to the NE of the Bahamas, supports a large area of gale force winds to the NE of the Bahamas. A cold front extends from the low pressure center, SW, to Hispaniola. The low and associated gale-force winds will shift to the east of the offshore waters basin, gradually, through early Friday. Very large seas associated with the low pressure center will dominate the basin through the end of the week, gradually subsiding this weekend. The next cold front will move off NE Florida early on Saturday, extending from 31N69W to the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida early on Sunday, shifting E through early next week. $$ mt