000 AXNT20 KNHC 222339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM WARNING... A 1004 mb low in the western Atlantic, located near 28N74W at 21/2100 UTC, will gradually weaken as another low farther east will become the dominant feature and continue moving eastward. The latest scatterometer data from 1300 UTC this morning showed storm force winds near the low center from 28N-29N between 73W-76W. These storm-force winds will end by 23/0000 UTC. Gale-force winds are expected to continue across the western and central Atlantic through 24/1200 UTC. Expect these gale-force winds to occur from 26N-31N between 78W-56W. Seas will range from 12-22 ft. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal region of Liberia near 07N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 03N32W to 02N44W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N-07N between 11W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered across the Mid-Atlantic region of the U.S. extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are entering the NW Gulf ahead of an upper level trough. These showers are noted from 27N-30N between 88W-96W. Otherwise, the rest of the Gulf remains quiet. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong N winds in the eastern Gulf. Winds have began to veer to the ESE in the central and western Gulf, with gentle easterly winds in the central Gulf and fresh to strong SE winds in the western Gulf near the Texas and northern Mexican coast. High pressure extending from the SE United States southward to the Yucatan Peninsula will slide E tonight with strong S return flow over the western Gulf, persisting into Thursday. A cold front will move off the Texas coast on Thursday night, and by Friday evening this front will stretch from the Big Bend region of Florida into the SW Gulf. This front will weaken and move SE of the Gulf by Saturday night. High pressure will again extend southward across the central Gulf on Sunday, shifting E into early next week as low pressure and attendant frontal boundaries may develop in the western and central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends southward into the northern Caribbean across the western half of the Greater Antilles. At the surface, a cold front enters the Caribbean from western Haiti near 18N74W and stretches to the SW basin near 12N81W. Showers are seen near this front. Showers are also noted across the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico ahead of the front and upper trough. The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean. In the western Caribbean behind the cold front, fresh to strong northern winds are seen, especially of the southern coast of Cuba and off the eastern coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. The cold front will reach from the eastern Dominican Republic to central Costa Rica early Thursday, then stall from Puerto Rico to eastern Panama from Thursday evening to Friday, weakening and dissipating. Strong N winds and higher seas are expected W of the front through tonight. N swell prevailing E of the Windward Islands will subside tonight. For the weekend into early next week, more benign conditions will prevail as a weak pressure gradient prevails over the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The 1004 mb low in the western Atlantic has a dying occlusion extending eastward from the low to a 1007 mb low near 28N69W. The 1007 mb low is expected to become the dominant low over the next few days. From that low, a cold front extends southward to northern Haiti near 20N73W. A stationary front extends east of the low to 31N59W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted east of the front from 22N-31N between 58W-68W. Near the 1007 mb low, there is an area of strong convection from 27N-30N between 70W-72W. Closer to the coast of Florida, a 1013 mb low is near 26N79W. A dying stationary front extends north of the low to 31N79W to 36N74W. Showers from the stronger low east of the Bahamas is bringing light showers across the Atlantic into central and southern Florida. In the central Atlantic, a 1014 mb low is near 28N34W with a trough extending from the low to 18N36W. A shear line begins from 18N36W to the Windward Islands near 14N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 25N-31N between 28W- 36W. Farther east, scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across the Cabo Verde Islands to western Africa from 07N-19N between 16W-32W. Complex low pressure producing widespread gales, and even minimal storm force near 29N75W, extends from the NW Bahamas to near 28N69W. This elongated low pressure will shift ESE and begin to consolidate and intensify tonight and Thursday as it gradually moves NE and out of the area Friday. Strong gales to near storm force will prevail N through W of the low pressure through tonight, spreading westward into the central and SE Florida coastal waters and across the NW Bahamas to 25N. Gales will continue and expand to the E as the low moves away from the Bahamas. An associated cold front extending from 29N69W to the N coast of Haiti will stretch from S of Bermuda through Hispaniola this evening, then stall over the far SE waters and Puerto Rico Thursday night into Friday. $$ AKR