000 AXNT20 KNHC 221757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1257 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN STORM WARNING... As of 22/1500 UTC, latest ASCAT data indicated wind observation reaching storm force winds west of the 1007 mb low pressure near 28N73W. The Gale Warning in effect has been upgraded to a Storm Warning as of 1500 UTC. This complex low pressure is producing widespread gales extends from west of 74W to the NW Bahamas and the coast of Florida. This elongated low pressure will shift ESE across the N Bahamas today, then consolidate and intensify as a broad low moves NE tonight and Thu. The storm force winds will continue through this evening, then lowered to gale force late tonight into early Thursday and expand to the E as the low moves away from the Bahamas. The low should be moving out of the area by the end of the week. The 24-hour forecast consists of the low pressure center having moved eastward by about 600 nm, gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 18 feet to 24 feet, from 30N to 31N between 60W and 73W. Please read the See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N10W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered moderate convection is present on either side of the monsoon trough from the Equator to 09N along the coast of Guinea south to Liberia to 23W. Scattered showers are seen north of the ITCZ from 04N-10N between 16W-36W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh SE winds across the western Gulf west of 92W and N near the coast of Florida. Overcast skies are present with stratus clouds streaming across the NW Gulf. Latest radar scans show light to moderate showers occurring near the coast of Texas to Louisiana including the coastal sections in the region. High pressure building southward across the Gulf behind a NW Caribbean cold front will allow winds to gradually decrease over the eastern Gulf today. As the high slides east tonight, strong S and SE winds will develop over the NW Gulf. This return flow will persist into Thu, ahead of a cold front that will move off the TX coast Thu night. By Fri evening, this front will stretch from the Big Bend region of Florida into the SW Gulf. This front will weaken and move SE of the Gulf by Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean across the Windward Passage near 19N74W to to central Nicaragua. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the vicinity of the boundary. ASCAT data shows fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front and lighter winds ahead of the front. To the east, light to moderate easterly trades prevail. The cold front will reach a Hispaniola to central Costa Rica line by this evening, then stall from Puerto Rico to eastern Panama Thu evening to Fri, then weaken and dissipate. Strong N winds and higher seas are expected W of the front through tonight. N swell prevailing E of the Windward Islands will diminish today. For the weekend, more benign conditions will prevail as a weak pressure gradient prevails over the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A very clomplex set up is in place over the western Atlantic Ocean, with a 1007 mb low pressure centered near 28N73W and a second low pressure centered north of the Bahamas near 27N78W. An occluded front extend north of the low near FL to the low to further east. A cold front extend south of the 1007 mb low across the southern Bahamas into the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection is associated with the first low and east of the cold front. A few showers are noticeable near the coast of north and central Florida west of 78W. Scatterometer shows gale to storm force winds across the region west of 73W with a Storm Warning currently in effect as of 22/15 UTC. A stationary front extends to the east to near 27N65W to 30N59W with moderate convection from 27N-31N between 59W to 67W. Further east, a weak 1015 mb low pressure is centered near 27N40W with shallow showers near the centered of the low. A 1016 mb low is also visible near 28N33W with a surface trough to 16N37W. There is an area of scattered moderate convection from 25N-31N between 28W-37W. A shear line extends from 16N37W to 13N61W with scattered showers in the vicinity of the line. Complex low pressure producing widespread gales extends from the NW Bahamas this morning to near 29N74W. This elongated low pressure will shift ESE across the N Bahamas today, then begin to consolidate and intensify as a broad low moves NE tonight and Thu and out of the area Fri. Strong gales to near storm force will prevail N through W of the low pressure through tonight, spreading westward into the central and SE Florida coastal waters and across the NW Bahamas to 25N. Gales will continue Thu and expand to the E as the low moves away from the Bahamas. An associated cold front extends from 28N70W to the Windward Passage this morning, and will stretch from S of Bermuda through Hispaniola this evening, then stall over the far SE waters and Puerto Rico Thu night into Fri. $$ Torres