000 AXNT20 KNHC 221154 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 27N75W, in the western Atlantic Ocean. The forecast is for the low pressure center to deepen during the next few days, to 1002 mb at 24 hours, and to 1001 mb in 48 hours. The surface pressure gradient will be tightening. Gale-force winds are present now, from 28N to 31N between 72W and 80W. The sea heights are ranging from 13 feet to 18 feet. The 24-hour forecast consists of the low pressure center having moved eastward by about 600 nm, gale-force winds , and sea heights ranging from 13 feet to 18 feet, from 30N to 31N between 60W and 73W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N, and it continues to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 01N32W. Precipitation: numerous strong from 06N to 08N between Africa and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 07N southward between 08W and 20W. Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the area to the E and SE of the line that runs from 04N51W to 10N34W to 10N at the coast of Africa. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure, building into the Gulf of Mexico, will allow the wind speeds to decrease from strong to fresh in the eastern Gulf today. Strong S and SE winds will develop in the NW Gulf of Mexico, as the high pressure slides eastward tonight. These winds will persist into Thursday, in advance of a cold front that will move off the Texas coast on Thursday night. The front will stretch from the Big Bend of Florida into the SW Gulf of Mexico, by Friday. The front will weaken and move SE of the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, across SE Cuba, to the NW shores of Jamaica, to northern Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm to the E/SE of the cold front. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.07 in Guadeloupe. Long-period N swell, producing high seas to the E of the Windward Islands, will diminish today. A cold front, that stretches from eastern Cuba to NE Nicaragua early this morning, will be along a line from Hispaniola to Panama by this evening. The front will stall from Puerto Rico to Colombia on Thursday evening, and weaken and dissipate on Friday. Strong N winds and high seas are expected to the west of the front through tonight. More benign conditions will prevail as a weak pressure gradient prevails in the area during the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N58W, to 30N63W. The front is stationary from 30N63W to a triple point that is near 28N72W. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 27N75W. An occluded front extends from the low pressure center to 28N72W. A cold front continues from the triple point, across the central Bahamas and SE Cuba, to north central Nicaragua. A surface trough is 330 nm to the E of the cold front, from Hispaniola to 26N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong, from 21N northward from 54W westward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.06 in Bermuda. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 29N41W. A surface trough curves away from the low pressure center, to 33N38W 26N33W and 17N37W. A shear line continues from 17N37W to 12N50W to 13N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate from 23N to 32N between 27W and 38W. Broken multilayered clouds are elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the surface trough and the shear line. Strengthening low pressure NE of the NW Bahamas early this morning will move eastward through tonight. The area of low pressure will turn NE and move out of the area on Thursday. Gale-force winds are occurring N of the NW Bahamas and W of 77N behind the area of low pressure. The gale-force winds will continue through Thursday, and expand to the E as the low pressure moves away from the Bahamas. Near storm conditions are possible. A cold front extends from the low pressure center, through the SE Bahamas and E Cuba. The front will stretch from S of Bermuda through Hispaniola this evening, and then stall in the far SE waters and Puerto Rico from Thursday night into Friday. $$ mt