000 AXNT20 KNHC 220535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A 1011 mb low pressure center has developed near 28N75W, in the western Atlantic Ocean. The forecast is for the low pressure center to deepen during the next few days, leading to a tight pressure gradient. Gale-force winds are present now, from 30.5N to 31N between 78W and 79W. The sea heights are ranging from 14 feet to 18 feet. The 24-hour forecast consists of the low pressure center having moved eastward by about 540 nm, gale- force winds , and sea heights ranging from 13 feet to 17 feet, from 29N to 31N between 64W and 75W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 04N17W, to 03N28W, and to the Equator along 33W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N southward between 10W and 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through Louisiana to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. High pressure in the central U.S.A. will continue to drive strong N winds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight, behind a NW Caribbean Sea cold front. The wind speeds in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will weaken, and strong southerly return flow will develop in the NW Gulf of Mexico, as the high pressure slides east by Wednesday. A cold front, moving into the NW Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, will shift fresh return flow to the N central then NE Gulf of Mexico between Thursday night and Friday, which will bring an end to the strong winds. This front will shift slowly E across the Gulf, and reach from the Florida Big Bend region to Tampico Mexico by Friday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, across SE Cuba, to northern Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. Long-period N swell, producing high seas and hazardous surf across the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean and along exposed Atlantic Ocean coasts of the Lesser Antilles, will diminish on Wednesday. A cold front, that stretches from central Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border this evening, should continue moving southeastward and reach from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Panama border by Wednesday afternoon, and then dissipate by Thursday afternoon. Strong N winds and high seas are expected behind this front. The conditions will become quiescent across the waters through at least Sunday night, as a weak Bermuda High develops to the north. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N58W, to 28N63W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 27N69W. An occluded front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure center that is near 28N75W, to a 27N72W triple point. A cold front continues from the triple point, across the central Bahamas and SE Cuba, to north central Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 28N60W 23N67W, to south central Hispaniola. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 300 nm to the southeast of the frontal boundary, from Hispaniola northward from 55W westward. A 1012 mb low pressure center is near 30N40W. A dissipating stationary front passes through 32N36W 25N34W, and curving to 15N40W. A surface trough continues from 15N40W 12N50W 12N56W and 15N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 24N northward between 30W and 40W. Gale-force wind speeds have developed to the northwest of the current 1011 mb low pressure center. The gale-force wind speeds will continue to the west or northwest of the low pressure area, while the low pressure center moves slowly northeastward toward Bermuda, and intensifies through Friday. The associated cold front will move southeastward through Thursday, and reach the SE Bahamas Wednesday afternoon, the Mona Passage on Thursday afternoon, and then dissipate by Friday afternoon. $$ mt