000 AXNT20 KNHC 212327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 627 PM EST Tue Jan 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A 1011 mb low has developed in the western Atlantic, located near 28N77W at 21/2100 UTC, and will deepen over the next few days leading to a tight pressure gradient. Gale-force winds will develop by 22/0000 UTC from 31N-30N between 77W-79W. These gale- force winds will come close to storm force especially in the next day and spread from 30N-27N between 70W-80W as the low meanders slowly eastward. Seas will range from 18-24 ft. Gale-force winds are expected to continue through midday Thursday. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N- 07N between 11W-24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1039 mb high is centered over the middle Mississippi Valley in the U.S. with the ridging extending across the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is noted in the western Bay of Campeche from 23N98W to 18N94W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong north-northeast winds across the central and eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted in the western Gulf. High pressure across the central U.S. will continue to drive strong N winds across the eastern Gulf through tonight behind a NW Caribbean cold front. As the high pressure slides east by Wednesday, winds across the eastern Gulf will weaken and strong southerly return flow will develop over the NW Gulf. A cold front moving into the NW Gulf by Thursday will shift fresh return flow to the N central then NE Gulf between Thursday night and Friday which will bring an end the strong winds. This front will shift slowly E across the Gulf and reach from the Florida Big Bend region to Tampico Mexico by Friday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from east-central Cuba to northern Honduras, from 21N79W to 16N85W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and 70 nm ahead of the front. Upper level ridging dominates the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection. Behind the cold front, strong to near gale-force northerly winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. The rest of the Caribbean has gentle to moderate trade winds. Long-period N swell producing high seas and hazardous surf across the Tropical North Atlantic and along exposed Atlantic coasts of the Lesser Antilles will diminish on Wednesday. A stationary front that stretches from central Cuba to central Honduras this afternoon should move southeastward as a cold front and reach from E Cuba to near the Panama-Nicaragua border by Wednesday afternoon, then dissipate by Thursday afternoon. Behind this front, strong N winds and high seas are expected. By late Thursday, conditions will become quiescent across the waters through at least Sunday night as a weak Bermuda High develops to the north. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning over the west Atlantic waters. A cold front stretches across the western Atlantic from 31N62W to east-central Cuba near 22N77W. The 1011 mb low associated with the gale-force winds has a trough extending east of the low from 28N77W to 27N73W. Isolated thunderstorms are noted along and north of this trough. A stationary front is noted across the central Atlantic from 31N34W to 15N39W to 15N59W. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern portion of the front from 27N-33N between 31N-34W. Diffluence from an upper level trough in the central Atlantic is aiding in scattered showers moving across the eastern Atlantic to the western African coast, including the Cabo Verde Islands. This activity is observed from 06N-17N between 16W- 35W. A 1021 mb high is analyzed near 29N49W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE winds behind the cold front in the western Atlantic, with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of it. Near the stationary front in the central Atlantic, strong to near gale- force cyclonic winds are noted near a low from 30N-34N between 38W-43W. Gales will develop to the northwest and west of the low tonight through Wednesday, while the low moves slowly northeastward toward Bermuda and intensifies through Friday. N gales will shift northeastward with the low and exit the NE waters by Friday. The associated cold front will move southeastward through Thursday and reach the SE Bahamas by Wednesday afternoon, the Mona Passage Thursday afternoon, then dissipate by Friday afternoon. $$ AKR