000 AXNT20 KNHC 210605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... The 24-hour forecast, starting at 22/0000 UTC, Tuesday evening, consists of: a cold front will be to the east of the Bahamas. A low pressure center is forecast to develop along the cold front. Gale-force N and NE winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 17 feet, will develop from 29N northward between 77W and 81W. The gale-force winds will develop in the area of the pressure gradient, between the low pressure center, and high pressure building into the SE U.S.A. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... The Gulf of Mexico gale wind warning will be ending in a few hours. the original forecast consisted of NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet, from 20N southward from 95W westward. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL... Large northerly swell will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean Sea passages through Tuesday. Large surf, dangerous rip currents, and possible coastal flooding will affect the Atlantic Ocean-facing shores of these islands through tonight. Please read information from your local or national meteorological service for more specific information on the beach hazards in your area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 05N10W, to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W, to 02N27W, crossing the Equator along 31W, to 01S38W, and to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 03N southward between 02W and 14W, to the east and southeast of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 20W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The earlier cold front has moved out of the Gulf of Mexico completely. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along the coast of Mexico. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the SW corner of the area. Strong high pressure has settled into the area. The resulting tight pressure gradient is maintaining gale-force northwest to north winds near Veracruz, Mexico. These winds will diminish to strong speeds late tonight, as the high pressure begins to shift eastward. The high pressure will continue to weaken as it shifts eastward through Thursday, in response to a cold front, preceded by a trough, that will move across the NW Gulf on Thursday. The trough will weaken Thursday night as the cold front reaches from south-central Louisiana to the western Gulf of Mexico. It will then reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf and central Bay of Campeche by early Friday afternoon, and to just southeast of the area by late on Saturday. Mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected behind this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean cold front cuts across NW Cuba, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and into the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N northward from 75W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb shows upper level anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge, that spans the entire area. The GFS model for 500 mb shows a trough extending from NW Cuba, across Jamaica, to the coast of Colombia near 10N76W. The GFS model for 700 mb shows a cyclonic circulation center that is about 180 nm to the south of Jamaica. A surface trough reaches the northern sections of Colombia, from the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: multilayered moisture and rainshowers are from 12N southward from 76W westward, and in parts of Panama and Costa Rica. Long-period north swell will continue to result in very large seas and hazardous marine conditions, across the Tropical North Atlantic, and in the Atlantic Ocean, facing parts of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico through Tuesday night, before gradually diminishing into mid-week. A NW Caribbean Sea cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to the northern coast of Honduras by Tuesday evening, bringing strong north winds and higher seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N63W, through 29N70W, across Andros Island in the Bahamas, across NW Cuba, and into the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 75 nm to the ESE of the cold front and within 45 nm to the NW of the cold front, from 28N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere within 60 nm on either side of the cold front. A surface trough is along 28N74W 29N78W 30N80W. An area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N to 32N between 30W and 46W. The upper level cyclonic wind flow is supporting a cold front that passes through 32N32W to 25N32W, curving to 16N40W, and 14N46W. The front becomes stationary there, and it continues to 18N60W and 20N68W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 100 nm on the western side of the cold front from 27N northward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are elsewhere within 90 nm on either side of the rest of the frontal boundary. Isolated moderate is from 26N northward between 23W and the cold front. A dissipating cold front passes through the coastal area of the Western Sahara near 26N15W, to 30N24W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Large seas, to the east of the southeastern Bahamas, will subside gradually through early Tuesday. The current western Atlantic Ocean cold front will move across the rest of the Bahamas and into eastern Cuba by Tuesday evening. A complex area of low pressure is forecast to develop along this front to the east of the Bahamas, from Tuesday through Wednesday night. The pressure gradient between the low pressure center, and high pressure building into the SE U.S.A, will bring strong gale- force northerly winds to the north of the Bahamas by Tuesday night. The gale-force winds will shift eastward through Thursday, and to the northeast of the forecast waters on Thursday night. A cold front will move across the far northwest waters on Saturday. $$ mt