000 AXNT20 KNHC 201751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1251 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details on the special features listed below: ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to the south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Gale force NW winds are currently off the coast of Veracruz. The gale will last through tonight. Seas will range from 8-10 ft. ...WEST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... On Tue evening, a 1004 mb surface low is forecast to develop over the W Atlantic near 28N75W. Gale force winds are expected north of 30N between 77W-78W, spreading to N of 29N between 71W-80W on Wed. Seas will build to 15 ft. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL... Large northerly swell will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands and northeast Caribbean passages through today before subsiding tonight into Tuesday. Large surf, dangerous rip currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the Atlantic- facing shores of these islands through today. See information from your local or national meteorological service for more specific information on beach hazards in your area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N09W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N- 07N between 04W-23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Veracruz Mexico. See the section above for details. A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to the south central Gulf of Mexico near 22N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Outside of gale area, 20-30 kt N to NE winds cover the Gulf of Mexico north of the front. Scattered showers are over the SW portion of the basin, N of the front. Isolated showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the front. A good amount of cold air advection is N of the front, especially over Florida. Freezing temperatures are expected as far south as Orlando Florida Tue night. Gale conditions will prevail offshore of Veracruz Mexico into tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift E by the middle of the week. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW Gulf Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends over the Leeward Islands from 17N60W to 19N67W. Isolated showers are noted across the N Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Gulf of Honduras, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama. The air is relatively dry over the Windward Islands due to mid-level anticyclonic flow and subsidence. Fresh trades prevail from 10N-18N between 60W-80W, with strong to near gale winds from 10N-16N between 70W-78W. Long-period N swell will bring very large seas and hazardous marine conditions across the Tropical North Atlantic and along Atlantic facing parts of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico today, before gradually diminishing into mid- week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this afternoon and reach from eastern Cuba to the N Coast of Honduras by Tue evening, bringing strong N winds and higher seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning over the far west Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N71W to the Straits of Florida near 25N80W. Fresh to strong N winds are behind the front. Strong SW winds are ahead of the front, north of 30N between 61W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 45 nm of the front. A 1027 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 32N50W. A cold front enters the E Atlantic near 31N32W and extends to 20N37W to 17N42W to 16N50W, and continues as a stationary front to beyond 17N60W. Scattered showers within 60 nm of the front. The tail end of another cold front extends from the Canary Islands near 27N13W and to 31N22W. Large seas E of the Turks and Caicos Islands will gradually subside today from W to E. A cold front from near 31N71W to the Florida Straits will reach the NW Bahamas this afternoon, then move through the Bahamas and into eastern Cuba by Tue evening. Low pressure is forecast to develop along this front to the east of the Bahamas Tue into Wed. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure building into the SE U.S. bring gale force northerly winds N of the Bahamas bu Tue night. The gale force winds will shift eastward through Wed night. $$ Formosa