000 AXNT20 KNHC 191756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the special features discussed below: ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... As of 19/1500 UTC, a cold front extends over the Gulf from the FL Panhandle to near Veracruz Mexico 20N96W and continues inland into Mexico. Buoys and oil platforms are reporting strong N to NE winds around 25 kt behind the front over the NW Gulf. The front will move quickly SE through the Gulf today. N winds behind the front will increase to gale force offshore of Tampico by 19/2100 UTC this afternoon and continue into tonight. Gales are forecast in the far SW Gulf off Veracruz tonight through Monday and Monday night. Seas of 10 to 14 ft are forecast in the SW Gulf. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale-force winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through this morning, then pulse to gale force again tonight, diminishing below gale force on Monday. Seas will range from 12 to 18 ft in this area. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL... Very large northerly swell will combine with strong winds to produce significant wave heights in excess of 16 ft today over a large area of the Atlantic from 16N-31N between 35W-68W. Very large surf, dangerous rip currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the Atlantic-facing shores of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands, and the northeast Caribbean passages today through early Monday. The swells will gradually subside late Mon and early Tue. See information from your local or national meteorological service for more specific information on beach hazards in your area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to the coast of Brazil near 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 08W-12W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 19W-30W and between 34W-44W near the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and southwest Gulf of Mexico, with gale conditions forecast to begin late this afternoon. See section above for details. As of 19/1500 UTC, a cold front extends over the Gulf from the FL Panhandle to near Veracruz Mexico 20N96W and continues inland into Mexico. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche near to 22N88W. Scattered showers are present near the coast south of 19N between 91W-92W. Gentle winds cover the eastern portion of the basin ahead of the front, except for the SE Gulf and Florida Straits, where moderate SE winds prevail. Behind the front, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail. The cold front will move quickly SE through the remainder of the Gulf today, and move SE of the Gulf Mon. Strong N winds follow the front, and gales will develop offshore areas south of Tampico this afternoon, then offshore Veracruz starting overnight and continuing into Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish Tue and Tue night as high pressure builds into the Gulf. This high will move east Wed, allowing strong S winds to develop in the northern Gulf Wed and Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Also, very large northerly swell currently affecting the NE Caribbean passages will continue through early Monday. See the sections above for details. Stationary front extends from 18N60W to 19N69W north of Hispaniola, then weakens to 21N76W near the northern coast of NE Cuba. Isolated showers are over the Greater Antilles near the front. Mid-level ridge is keeping relatively dry air across much of the Caribbean basin. Cloudiness and a few showers are seen well south of Puerto Rico and also in the western Caribbean. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force winds south of Hispaniola to the northern Coast of Venezuela and Colombia. 25 to 30 kt NE-E winds prevail across the Mona and the Windward Passage as well as the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trades cover the eastern Caribbean and west of 70W. Winds will briefly diminish below gale force off the coast of Colombia this afternoon before pulsing to gale force tonight. Thereafter the pressure gradient responsible for the high winds will loosen, allowing winds to diminish to strong levels into mid- week. Elsewhere, high pressure building SW toward the Caribbean will result in strong E and NE winds over much of the Central and Eastern Caribbean through tonight, before the high moves to the east and weakens, diminishing winds across most of the area. Long period N swell is creating very large seas and hazardous marine conditions across the Tropical North Atlantic forecast zones. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic from 28N-31N between 35W-47W. Refer to the section above for details. A cold front extends from 30N35W to 21N44W to 18N52W, then stalls to 18N64W to 19N69W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front with a moderate convection concentrated north of 22N to 31N between 32W-36W. A 1028 mb high is centered near Bermuda. In the far eastern Atlantic, an upper-level trough is inducing scattered showers from 21N-28N between 15W-25W. Strong NE winds cover much of Atlantic to the NE of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands as well as the Caribbean passages. Large seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually subside from W to E through Mon. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast today. The front will extend from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Mon, then stall from east of Bermuda to the Windward Passage on Tue. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of this cold front will bring strong to near gale force winds over the Western waters N of 25N Tue through Thu, with gales force winds possible. $$ MMTorres