000 AXNT20 KNHC 190550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the special features discussed below: ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale-force winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through this morning, then pulse to gale force again tonight, diminishing below gale force on Monday. Seas will range from 11 to 17 ft in this area. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 32N40W to 26N44W to 22N49W to 19N58W to 19N70W. ASCAT passes that occurred between 18/2232 and 19/0016 UTC show gale-force NW to N winds behind the front, north of 26N between the front and 54W. Gale force SW winds are within 150 nm ahead of the front north of 28N. An altimeter pass from 18/1801 UTC showed significant wave heights of 21 to 24 ft from 26N-30N between 54W-57W. Seas are forecast to range from 19 to 27 ft west of the front, and 14 to 18 ft east of the front. Winds are forecast to diminish to below gale force by late this afternoon. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front extends over the NW Gulf from Morgan City Louisiana to Brownsville Texas. An ASCAT pass from 19/0310 UTC indicates fresh N winds have developed north of the front, south of 28N and west of 93W. The front will move eastward across the Gulf today into Mon. N winds behind the front will increase to gale force offshore of Tampico by late this afternoon and continue into tonight. Gales are also forecast in the far SW Gulf off Veracruz tonight through Monday and into Monday evening. Seas of 10 to 14 ft are forecast in the SW Gulf. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL... Very large northerly swell will combine with strong winds to produce significant wave heights in excess of 15 ft today over a large area of the Atlantic from 15N-31N between 35W-71W. Very large swell will affect the Atlantic-facing shores of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands, and the northeast Caribbean passages today through early Monday, gradually subsiding late Mon and early Tue. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 00N27W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and southwest Gulf of Mexico, with gale conditions forecast to begin late this afternoon. See section above for details. A cold front extends over the NW Gulf from Morgan City Louisiana to Brownsville Texas. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the western portion of the basin, west of a line from Fort Walton Beach Florida near 30N87W to 24N94W to 20N97W. Additional scattered moderate convection is well ahead of the front, over the NE Gulf of Mexico, north of 27N and east of 88W. The latest ASCAT data suggests a pre-frontal trough is causing enhanced low-level convergence in the NE Gulf well ahead of the front, enhancing the convection in the area. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are still seen over portions of the SE Gulf south of 28N and east of 87W, with fresh to strong E winds in the Florida Straits. Gentle winds are over the SW Gulf ahead of the front. The cold front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico Mexico later this morning and from the Straits of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by early Mon. Strong northerly winds will follow the front, with gale conditions expected offshore Tampico and Veracruz late today through late Mon. The front will move southeast of the area Mon night, allowing winds and seas to diminish across much of the Gulf Tue into Wed as high pressure builds across the area. Strong southerly winds will develop in the far western Gulf beginning Tue night and Wed. These winds will shift across the western Gulf Thu and Thu night as a trough approaches the Texas coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell is expected for the northeast Caribbean passages today. See the sections above for details. A cold front extends from 19N60W to 19N70W, then continues as a stationary front along the N coasts of Hispaniola and Cuba to 23N80W. Isolated showers are over the Greater Antilles near the front. Mid-level ridging is keeping relatively dry air across much of the Caribbean basin. Cloudiness and a few showers are seen well south of Puerto Rico and also near Honduras. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force winds from 10N-22N between 67W-80W. 30 kt winds are in the Windward and Mona Passages as well as the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trades cover the remainder of the Caribbean. Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through this morning, then pulse to gale force again tonight. Strong winds will continue across much of the Caribbean today as the front stalls over the Greater Antilles and high pressure builds in the SW N Atlantic. Long period N swell will produce very large seas and hazardous marine conditions across the Tropical N Atlantic waters now through Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon through Wed. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Mon night, bringing fresh to strong north winds to the waters W of 80W through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic from 26N-31N between 35W-54W. Refer to the section above for details. A cold front extends from 32N40W to 26N44W to 22N49W to 19N58W to 19N70W, then continues as a stationary front along the N coasts of Hispaniola and Cuba to 23N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and within 120 nm east of the front, north of 24N. Isolated showers are along the remainder of the front. High pressure has built in behind the front over the west Atlantic, with a 1031 mb high centered near Bermuda. An upper- level trough over the far eastern Atlantic is inducing scattered showers from 17N-28N between 16W-26W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong NE winds covering much of Atlantic south of 25N, from the SE Bahamas to the NE Caribbean and eastward to the central Atlantic cold front. The front from 19N65W to 23N80W will weaken this morning and dissipate by late this afternoon. Strong to near gale force winds will continue behind the front today. Very large seas in north to northeast swell will continue through Mon, resulting in large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions along the Atlantic beaches of the SE Bahamas, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the other eastern Caribbean islands. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast later today, then pass SE across the forecast waters through early this week. Expect increasing north to northeast winds and building seas offshore of Florida and Georgia southward to the northwest Bahamas late Tuesday through Wed night in the wake of a strong cold front and possible attendant low pressure. Gale conditions are possible north of 29N and west of 77W late Tue into Wed. $$ Hagen