000 AXNT20 KNHC 182359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 659 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the special features discussed below: ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale-force winds will continue north of Colombia this weekend and diminish to below gale force by Sun evening. Seas will range from 10 to 17 ft in this area. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 31N43W to 23N52W to 20N66W, then continues as a stationary front to 20N76W. Gale force NW to N winds are W of the front, north of 27N between 53W and 62W. Seas will range from 19 to 25 ft W of front. Gale force SW winds are E of the front north of 28N between 42W and 48W. Seas will range from 10 to 16 ft E of front. Gales are forecast diminish to below gale force by Sun evening. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight and move eastward across the Gulf Sun into Mon. Behind the front, gale force N winds are expected in the far west-central Gulf offshore Tampico on 20/0000 UTC, Sun evening. Gales are also forecast in the far SW Gulf off Veracruz Sunday night into Mon. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL... Large northerly swell in excess of 10 ft will combine with strong winds to produce significant wave heights in excess of 15 ft today into Sunday over a large area of the Atlantic north of 19N between 48W-71W. Swell will affect the easternmost shores of the Bahamas today, then gradually diminish late Sunday. By tonight, the large swell will begin to affect the Greater Antilles, and the northeast Caribbean passages. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 00N26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and southwest Gulf of Mexico, with gale conditions beginning on Sunday evening. See section above for details. A cold front is inland over S Texas moving SW. Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Louisiana and the SE Texas coasts. A surface trough is off the coast of Mexico from 23N98W to 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-25N between 95W-98W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. 10-20 kt SE to S winds are over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over the Straits of Florida. In the upper levels, SW upper level flow is over the Gulf. Broken to overcast high clouds are over the NW Gulf, while strong subsidence is over the SE Gulf. A cold front will move off the Texas coast early tonight, reach from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico on Sun and from the Straits of Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Mon. Strong northerly winds will follow the front, with gale conditions expected over the southwestern portion of the far western Gulf and in the far SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz, Mexico Sun night into Mon night. The front will move southeast of the area Mon night, allowing winds and seas to diminish across much of the Gulf Tue through Wed as high pressure builds across the area. Strong southerly winds will develop in the far western Gulf beginning Tue night. These winds will shift across the western Gulf Thu and Thu night as a cold front approaches the Texas coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell is expected for the northeast Caribbean passages on Sunday. See the sections above for details. Strong to near gale tradewinds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers are over the N Leeward Islands, N Hispaniola, and N Cuba due to a frontal system. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Gulf of Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica, and the SW Caribbean. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean and Central America with axis along 75W. Strong subsidence is over the entire area suppressing deep convection. Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sun evening, then pulse to gale force again on Sun night. Strong winds will continue across much of the Caribbean into Sun as a cold front stalls over the Greater Antilles and high pressure builds in the SW N Atlantic. Long period N swell will produce very large seas across the Tropical N Atlantic waters late tonight through Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon through Wed. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Mon night, bringing fresh to strong north winds to the waters W of 80W through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. A cold front extends from 31N42W to 23N50W to 20N60W to 20N73W, then continues as a stationary front to Cuba near 22N80W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and within 180 nm east of the front, north of 25N. A 1032 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N19W. The Atlantic front will weaken through early Sun and dissipate Sun by early Sun. Strong to near gale force winds will continue behind the front into Sun. Very large seas in north to northeast swell will continue through Mon, resulting in large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions along the Atlantic beaches. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun, then pass SE across the forecast waters through early next week. Expect increasing north to northeast winds and building seas across the northern waters through Wed night in the wake of a strong cold and possible attendant low pressure. Gale conditions are possible over far northern waters west of 77W Tue night into Wed. $$ Formosa