000 AXNT20 KNHC 181806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the special features discussed below. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale-force winds will continue north of Colombia this weekend and diminish to below gale force by late Sun morning. Seas will range from 12 to 18 ft in this area. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 30N45W to 21N63W to 23N81W, then continues as a stationary front into the Gulf of Mexico. Latest ASCAT data shows gale force N to NW winds north 28N within 600 nm behind the front and S to SW gale force winds within 240 nm ahead of the front. Gales will spread east with the front north of 28N through the evening. Seas will range from 16 to 23 ft near the front. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight and move eastward across the Gulf Sun into Mon. Behind the front, gale force N winds are expected in the far west-central Gulf offshore Tampico Sunday and Sunday night. Gales are also forecast in the far SW Gulf off Veracruz Sunday night into Mon. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL... Large northerly swell in excess of 10 ft will combine with strong winds to produce significant wave heights in excess of 15 ft today into Sunday over a large area of the Atlantic north of 19N between 48W-71W. Swell will affect the easternmost shores of the Bahamas today, then gradually diminish late Sunday. By tonight, the large swell will begin to affect the Greater Antilles, and the northeast Caribbean passages. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 00N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate with convection is noted near and within 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-43W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 23W-20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and southwest Gulf of Mexico, with gale conditions beginning on Sunday. See section above for details. Mid-level ridging prevails over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to 28N88W. Shallow showers are along the front due to subsidence from the ridging. Strong E to SE winds around 25 kt are still being observed over the eastern portion of the basin, mainly east of 88W. As the front dissipates today, winds and seas should subside. A surface trough is in the far western Gulf from 18N94W to 22N97W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are along the trough, including the area from 19N-24N between 93W-97W. A weakening stationary front extending from the Florida Straits to the north-central Gulf will dissipate today. A cold front will move off the Texas coast this evening, extend from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico on Sun, then reach from the Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche on Mon. Strong N winds will follow the front, with gale conditions expected over the SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz, Mexico Sun night into Mon night. The front will pass SE of the area Mon night, allowing winds and seas to diminish across much of the Gulf Tue through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell is expected for the northeast Caribbean passages on Sunday. See the sections above for details. Strong to near gale tradewinds prevail across the remainder of the basin west of 70W. Isolated showers are seen near the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as well as the adjacent waters. Isolated showers and tstorms are also seen over the Gulf of Honduras. The central Caribbean is experiencing relatively dry air due to mid- level ridging over the region. Elsewhere, a cold front that extends from Cuba to the Southern Bahamas is spreading cloudiness and showers along the north coast of Cuba and Hispaniola. Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sun morning, then pulse to gale force again on Sun night. Strong winds will prevail across much of the Caribbean into Sun as a cold front stalls over the Greater Antilles and high pressure builds in the SW N Atlantic. Long period N swell will produce very large seas across the Tropical N Atlantic waters late tonight through Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon through Wed. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Mon night, bringing fresh to strong N winds to the waters W of 80W through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. A cold front extends from 30N45W to 21N63W to 23N81W, then continues as a stationary front into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is along and within 120 nm ahead of the front, north of 25N and east of 50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm behind the front, north of 28N and east of 50W. Aside from the gale force winds discussed in the section above, strong to near gale force winds are elsewhere north of 24N between 40W-88W. East winds of 25-30 kt are over the northwest and central Bahamas, the Florida Straits and the Florida Keys. Altimeter data indicates significant wave heights of 19 to 25 ft in the area from 26N-31N between 48W-63W. Surface ridging is over the far eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 33N15W. Upper- level troughing is producing cloudiness and scattered showers from 14N-23N between 19W-29W. The cold front will begin to stall over the Greater Antilles into tonight, then dissipate on Sun. Strong to near gale force winds will continue behind the front into Sun. Very large seas in N to NE swell will prevail through Mon, resulting in large breaking waves and dangerous surf conditions along the Atlantic beaches. Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun, then pass SE across the forecast waters through early next week. Expect strengthening NE winds and building seas across the northern waters through midweek following frontal passage. $$ MTorres