000 AXNT20 KNHC 180554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1253 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details on the three special features discussed below. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... The latest ASCAT pass shows gale force winds off Colombia from 10N-13N between 74W-78W. Expect gale-force winds to continue north of Colombia today and tonight diminishing to below gale force Sunday morning. Seas will range between 11-17 ft in this area. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 32N49W to 25N62W to 24N70W to 24N76W, then continues as a stationary front to the Florida Keys to the north-central Gulf of Mexico. The latest ASCAT pass shows gale force winds north 28N between the front and 70W. Gales are also 120-240 nm ahead of the front. Seas will range between 16-23 ft near the front. These conditions will spread east through the next 24 hours. ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front will move into the NW Gulf this evening and move eastward across the Gulf Sun into Mon. Behind the front, gale force N winds are expected in the far west-central Gulf just offshore of Tampico Sunday and Sunday night. Gales are also forecast in the far SW Gulf off Veracruz Sunday night. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 24W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the basin from the Florida Keys to Galveston Bay. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front east of 83W, including over the Florida Keys, with isolated showers elsewhere along the front. A surface trough over the western Bay of Campeche is producing showers as well. ASCAT data depicts strong easterly winds east of 89W. The front will weaken through today. High pressure building behind the front will support strong easterly winds and building seas over the NE Gulf through today. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf this evening, extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico on Sun, then move to southeast of the area by Mon evening. This front will be followed by strong northerly winds over most of the Gulf, with gale force winds possible in the far west-central Gulf Sun and Sun night and in the far SW Gulf Sun night through Mon night. High pressure behind this front will shift eastward through Wed night allowing for strong return southerly flow and building seas to develop over the far western Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. See the section above for details. Strong to near gale tradewinds prevail across the remainder of the basin west of 70W. Moderate trades are east of 70W. Isolated to scattered light to moderate showers prevail over portions of Central America and the western Caribbean. Isolated showers are seen near Hispaniola with some of this activity reaching the adjacent waters. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered along the eastern U.S. and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support gales off the coast of Colombia through Sun morning, with gale force winds likely to pulse again Sun night. Strong winds will develop in the northeastern Caribbean this evening through Sun night as the front becomes stationary over the forecast waters. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the area early next week. Another cold front may bring strong northerly winds to the northwest Caribbean Mon night through Tue night. This front is expected to become stationary from near Windward Passage to the southwest Caribbean on Wed and Wed night and weaken. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. A cold front extends from 32N49W to 25N62W to 24N70W to 24N76W, then continues as a stationary front to the Florida Keys. Scattered moderate convection is north of 28N between 42W-49W. Surface ridging is over the east Atlantic. The Atlantic cold front will become stationary across the Greater Antilles this evening into Sun. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front through tonight, while large seas in northerly swell will persist through Mon night. Another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun and move across the offshore waters through Tue night and reach the far southeast waters by Wed night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds and building seas will follow in behind this front over the northwest waters early next week, then mainly strong north to northeast over the remainder of the waters through Wed night. $$ Hagen