000 AXNT20 KNHC 172358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Expect gale-force winds to continue north of Colombia by tonight and continue through the next 48 hours mainly from 11N-13N between 74W-77W. Seas will range between 10-17 ft in this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front extends from 31N54W to 25N67W to 25N80W. Gale force winds are noted north of 29N and within 480 nm on either sides of the front. Seas will range between 10-16 ft east of the front, and from 14-21 ft west of the front. These conditions will spread east through the next 24 hours with the front. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the basin from 25N81W to 29N95W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A small area of scattered showers has developed over the Bay of Campeche south of 23N and west of 94W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across the basin. The front is expected to weaken through Sat. High pressure building behind the front will support strong easterly winds and building seas over the NE Gulf tonight through Sat. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat evening, extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico on Sun, then move to southeast of the area by Mon evening. This front will be followed by strong northerly winds over most of the Gulf, with near gale- force winds possible in the far SW Gulf Sun night through Mon night. High pressure behind this front will shift eastward through mid-week allowing for strong return southerly flow and building seas to develop over the far western Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean, mainly north of the coast of Colombia. See the section above for details. Moderate to fresh tradewinds prevail across the remainder of the basin, as noted in scatterometer data. Scattered showers prevail over portions of Central America, with some of this activity reaching the adjacent waters. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered along the eastern U.S. and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support gales off the coast of Colombia through Sun morning, with gale force winds likely to pulse again Sun night. Strong winds will develop in the northeastern Caribbean Sat evening through Sun night as the front becomes stationary over the forecast waters. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the area early next week. The next cold front may bring strong northerly winds to the northwest Caribbean Mon night through Tue night. This front is expected to become stationary from near Windward Passage to the southwest Caribbean on Wed and Wed night and weaken. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. A cold front is over the western half of the basin from 31N54W to 25N67W to 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front mainly north of 27N. Surface ridging is over the east Atlantic, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 34N11W. The current cold front will reach from the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida tonight, then become stationary from near the Greater Antilles Sat evening into Sun. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front through Sat night, while large seas in northerly swell will persist through Mon night. Another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Sun and move across the offshore waters through Tue night and reach the far southeast waters by Wed night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds and building seas will follow in behind this front over the northwest waters early next week, then mainly strong north to northeast over the remainder of the waters through mid-week. $$ ERA