000 AXNT20 KNHC 171734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1234 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 17 feet, are off the coast of Colombia from 11N to 13N between 74W and 77W. Expect the gale-force winds to continue through Sun morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the NWS National Hurricane Center website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... The 6-hour forecast starting at 17/1800 UTC, calls for gale- force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 13 feet, from 28N to 31N between 49W and 60W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the NWS National Hurricane Center website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml,for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Isolated moderate convection is along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 00N-04N between 10W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 17/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Everglades City Florida near 26N81W to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 28N90W. A stationary front continues to Galveston Texas near 29N95W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the fronts. A small area of scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-21N between 94W-95W. 15-20 kt easterly winds are over the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence is over the Gulf. Broken to overcast upper level clouds are over N Mexico and Texas. The current surface fronts will gradually stall and weaken from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast tonight into Sat. High pressure building behind the front will support strong easterly winds and building seas over the NE Gulf tonight through Sat. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sat evening, extend from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz, Mexico on Sun, then pass SE of the region by late Mon. This front will bring strong winds to most of the Gulf, with near gale force winds in the SW Gulf Sun night through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are along the coast of N Colombia. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea with weakest winds over the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is over Belize, NE Guatemala, and the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are over Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W. An upper level trough is over the NE Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean, Central America, and N South America. High pressure centered well north of the Caribbean will continue to support gales off the coast of Colombia through Sun morning, with gales likely to pulse again Sun night. Strong to near gale force winds are expected in the NW Caribbean through Sat in the wake of an approaching cold front. Strong winds will develop in the NE Caribbean Sat evening through Sun night as the front stalls over the region. Winds and seas will diminish across much of the area early next week. Another cold front may bring strong northerly winds to the NW Caribbean Mon night and Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 17/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N57W to 26N70W to Miami Florida near 25.5N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A gale is forecast to start shortly. See above. Surface ridging is over the E Atlantic N of 20N E of 50W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 15N between 35W-50W. The current cold front will reach from the central Bahamas to the Straits of Florida tonight, then stall near the Greater Antilles late Sat into Sun. Strong winds are expected behind the front through Sat night, while large seas in northerly swell will persist through Mon night. Another cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Sun and cross the offshore waters through early next week. $$ Formosa