000 AXNT20 KNHC 170605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... NE gale-force winds, and sea heights reaching 8 feet, are from 11N to 12N between 74W and 75W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W, to 06N14W, and to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W, to 01N30W, to 01N40W, crossing the Equator along 45W, reaching the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N southward between 12W and 26W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward between 27W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from Andros Island in the Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and to the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. An Atlantic Ocean cold front will be moving SW, into the NE Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. Strong high pressure behind the front will support strong E-SE winds and building seas in the eastern basin from Friday through Saturday evening. A second cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. The second cold front will extend from northern Florida to near Tampico Mexico on Sunday evening, and finally from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday evening. Strong to locally near gale-force winds will follow the front, and affect the basin from Sunday through Tuesday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level NW-to-SE oriented trough extends from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Oceann side of southern Mexico, to NW Nicaragua. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 18N southward from 82W westward, including in the Gulf of Honduras. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken to overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, in many sections of the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.15 in Curacao, and a trace in Guadeloupe. High pressure to the north of the area will support gale-force wind speeds along the coast of Colombia through Sunday morning. A cold front will be moving across the SW N Atlantic Ocean tonight. Strong high pressure will be building into the SW N Atlantic Ocean behind the cold front. Expect strong to near gale- force NE to E winds in the NW Caribbean through Saturday. The cold front will reach Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands on Saturday evening. The cold front will be accompanied by strong NE winds and large seas. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish to the east of the Leeward Islands on Monday. A new cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sea on Monday evening, with strong northerlies. The wind speeds and the sea heights that will be associated with the new cold front will diminish on Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 34N67W to 32N71W, to NE Florida near 31N81W, continuing beyond SE Louisiana. Precipitation: Isolated moderate is within 30 nm on either side of the line from 30N69W beyond 32N64W. Other precipitation is from 32N northward between 50W and 62W. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.50 in Bermuda. The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show a trough that extends from 32N44W to 26N45W to 20N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate are from 27N northward between 42W and 46W. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.50 in Bermuda. A surface ridge passes from the waters that are between the Canary Islands and the Madeira Archipelago, to 26N33W, to a 1024 mb high pressure center that is near 27N46W. The ridge continues from 27N46W, to 25N70W, across Andros Island in the Bahamas, beyond the Straits of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front, entering the northern waters tonight, will extend from 28N65W to southern Florida during the middle of the day on Friday, and from 22N60W to Hispaniola on Saturday morning. The front will bring strong winds and large seas to the region through Saturday night. A second cold front will enter the NW waters on Sunday night. The second cold front will support fresh to strong winds N of 28N through Monday evening. Strong high pressure building behind the front will support strong northerlies across the Florida seaboard, and to the east of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. $$ mt