000 AXNT20 KNHC 162325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Expect gale-force winds to resume north of Colombia by tonight and continue through the next 48 hours mainly from 10N-14N between 71W-79W. Seas will range between 10 to 17 feet in this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... A cold front is expected to enter the west Atlantic tonight, extending from 28N65W to southern Florida around midday Fri, and from 22N60W to Hispaniola Sat morning. As the front continues moving east across the basin, gale-force winds will develop north of 28N between 42W-48W. Seas in this area will range between 11-13 ft. These conditions will spread east following the front. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ between 10W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the Gulf states coastline at this time. Surface ridging prevails across the basin ahead of the front. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the northern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted south of 25N. Mostly fair weather is over the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front will push southeast into the NE Gulf Fri and Sat. Strong high pressure behind the front will support strong E-SE winds and building seas over the eastern basin Fri through Sat evening. A second cold front will reach the NW Gulf Sat night, then extend from northern Florida to near Tampico Mexico Sun evening, and finally from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula Mon evening. Strong to locally near-gale force winds will follow the front Sun through Tue morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. Near-gale force winds are noted along the coast of N Colombia, while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail elsewhere. Strong subsidence at upper levels prevails across the basin supporting fair weather. High pressure north of the area will support gale-force winds along the coast of Colombia starting tonight through Sun morning. Strong high pressure building behind a cold front entering the west Atlantic waters tonight will support strong NE to E winds in the northwest Caribbean starting this evening and continuing through Sat. The front will reach Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands Sat evening, accompanied by strong NE winds and large seas. Winds and seas will diminish east of the Leeward Islands Mon. A new cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Mon evening with strong northerlies and large seas. Winds and seas associated with it will diminish Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect. Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 25N46W. A strong cold front will enter the west Atlantic waters tonight will extend from 28N65W to southern Florida around mid day Fri, and from 22N60W to Hispaniola Sat morning. A second cold front will enter the NW waters Sun night supporting fresh to strong winds N of 28 N through Mon evening. Strong high pressure building behind the front will support strong northerlies across the Florida seaboard and east of the Bahamas through the middle of the week. $$ ERA