000 AXNT20 KNHC 161742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The 12-hour forecast, starting at 17/0000 UTC, consists of NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet, along the coast of N Colombia from 10.5N to 13N between 72W and 78W. The gale-force winds are forecast to continue through Sun morning. The sea heights will range from 10 feet to 18 feet. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 01N25W to 00N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the ITCZ from 04S-07S between 22W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over S Texas and N Mexico moving SE. A 1026 mb high is over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W. 5-15 kt SE winds are over the Gulf with strongest winds over the S Gulf and weakest winds around the high center. Mostly fair weather is over the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken to overcast low clouds are banked along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Oriental Mountains, Mexico. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 88W. Strong subsidence is over the S Gulf. Upper level clouds are over N Mexico, Texas, and the NW Gulf. Areas of dense fog within 30 nm of the coast from the Big Bend of Florida to Corpus Christi will clear out by mid afternoon. An Atlantic cold front will push SW into the NE Gulf Fri and Sat. A second cold front will reach the NW Gulf Sat night, then extend from northern Florida to near Tampico Mexico Sun evening, and finally from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula Mon evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Near gale winds are along the coast of N Colombia. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea with weakest winds along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are over Belize, Guatemala, the Gulf of Honduras, Honduras, N Nicaragua, and E Costa Rica. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W. An upper level trough is over the NE Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean, Central America, and N South America. High pressure north of the area will support gale force winds along the coast of Colombia through Sun morning. A cold front will reach Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands Sat night, accompanied by strong NE winds and large seas. Winds and seas will diminish east of the Leeward Islands Mon and Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 26N48W. Another 1030 mb high is along the coast of Morocco near 32N10W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 40W-60W. A strong cold front entering the northern waters tonight will extend from 28N65W to southern Florida around midday Fri, and from 22N60W to Hispaniola Sat morning. The front will bring strong winds and large seas to the region through Sat night. A second cold front will enter the NW waters Sun night. $$ Formosa