000 AXNT20 KNHC 160552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Thu Jan 16 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 13 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. Expect that gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet, in more or less the same areas, will be pulsing during the late night and early morning hours, until at least Friday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 07N11W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to 03N23W, to the Equator along 30W, to 02N36W, and to 01N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 13W and 21W. Isolated moderate from 06N from 24W westward, and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 26W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the 1025 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 29N74W, across Florida,into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Areas of dense fog will persist within 30 nm of shore between Pensacola Florida and Pascagoula Mississippi until mid morning on Thursday. Weak ridging extends SW in the Gulf of Mexico, from the SE United States. A cold front will move S in the NE Gulf on Thursday evening, become stationary in the NE Gulf on Friday afternoon, and then dissipate late on Saturday. Weak SE return flow will set up across the basin in advance of the next cold front, that will be entering the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. The front will extend from the Big Bend coast of Florida to near Tampico Mexico on Sunday afternoon; and from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show a trough that extends from Hispaniola to Jamaica, to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, in the Caribbean Sea, except for the area that is about 180 nm to the south of the Greater Antilles and in the SE corner of the area. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken to overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, in many sections of the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 16/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.08 in Guadeloupe. High pressure to the north of the area will help maintain evening-to-early morning NE gale-force winds in the S central Caribbean Sea through Sunday morning. NE swell will continue to support high seas in the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. A cold front will reach the tropical N Atlantic Sat and usher in a new round of large long period N swell along with strong winds. Strong winds east of the Leeward Islands will diminish Mon morning while the swell component will continue to spread S and subside by the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface low pressure covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward between the Madeira Archipelago and 55W. Frontal boundaries are a bit to the north of 32N between 20W and 50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 32N to 33N between 60W and 65W. Scattered to broken high level clouds are from 26N northward between 54W and 63W, and elsewhere from 30N northward from 54W eastward. A surface ridge passes through 32N12W, across the Canary Islands, to 28N20W, to a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 26N40W. The ridge continues from 26N40W, to a 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 28N66W, and continuing to a second 1025 mb high pressure center that is near 29N74W. Broken to overcast high level clouds are within 125 nm on either side of the line from the coastal waters of NE Venezuela near 10N61W to 14N44W to 15N28W, and within 225 nm to 325 nm on either side of the line from 13N29W, crossing the Cabo Verde Islands, beyond 17N16W, into Africa. High pressure N of the area will maintain evening to early morning NE gales over the S central Caribbean through Sun morning. NE swell will continue to support high seas in the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Thu. A cold front will reach the tropical N Atlantic Sat and usher in a new round of large long period N swell along with strong winds. Strong winds east of the Leeward Islands will diminish Mon morning while the swell component will continue to spread S and subside by the middle of the week. $$ mt