000 AXNT20 KNHC 152351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Expect gale-force winds to resume north of Colombia tonight and continue to pulse through Thursday night. Seas will range between 9 to 13 feet in this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 04N08W to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N10W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 10N and east of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layered ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico which is keeping conditions tranquil. A surface trough is noted in the western Bay of Campeche along the coastline from 18N-21N. The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the basin. Areas of dense fog will persist within 30 nm of shore between Pensacola Florida and Pascagoula Mississippi until mid morning Thu. Weak ridging extends SW over the Gulf from the SE United States. A cold front will move S over the NE Gulf Thu evening, become stationary in the NE Gulf Fri afternoon, then dissipate late on Sat. Afterwards, weak SE return flow will set up across the basin ahead of the next cold front entering the NW Gulf Sat night. The front should extend from the Big Bend coast of Florida to near Tampico Sun afternoon and from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula Mon afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the south-central Caribbean. An upper-level trough extends across the central Caribbean. This feature, along with a plume of moisture in the area, is setting off scattered showers across the eastern half of the basin. Scattered showers are also moving into the far west Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras southward into Costa Rica. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades continuing across the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades with occasional strong winds are noted throughout the rest of the basin. The strong Bermuda High N of the area will maintain evening to early morning NE gales over S central Caribbean through Sun morning. A long fetch of fresh to strong trades over the tropical N Atlantic is combining with N swell to produce high seas in the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles. The trades and associated seas will diminish Thu. A cold front will reach the tropical N Atlantic on Sat, and usher in a new round of large long period N swell. This swell will start subsiding by Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 28N72W, a 1024 mb high near 28N66W, a 1023 mb high near 28N51W, and a 1022 mb high near 27N23W. A surface trough is analyzed along the African coastline from 25N15W to 17N15W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the basin mainly north of 22N, while moderate to fresh winds are noted south of 22N. The strong Bermuda High over the W Atlantic will maintain moderate to strong trades and some N swell south of 22N through Thu. A cold front will enter the N waters by Thu evening and progress south-southeast before dissipating just N of Puerto Rico Sat evening. Strong winds and high seas will follow the front and prevail across the southern waters through Sat night. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Sun night with strong winds affecting the waters N of 28N through Mon night. $$ ERA