000 AXNT20 KNHC 151729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1229 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... The ongoing gale-force winds north of Colombia have decreased below gale- force temporarily. By tonight, expect gale-force winds to resume north of Colombia and will continue this nightly pulse through Thursday night. Seas will range between 9 to 13 feet. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 05N08W to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N10W to 01S26W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S-07N between 10W-26W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep layered ridging is over the Gulf of Mexico which is keeping conditions tranquil. A trough is noted in the western Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 19N96W with no significant convection associated with it. The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle ESE winds across most of the basin with gentle to moderate SE winds off the Texas coast. Areas of dense fog will persist within 30 nm of shore between Pensacola Florida and Pascagoula Mississippi until mid-morning Thursday. A cold front will move S over the NE Gulf Thursday evening, become stationary in the NE Gulf Friday afternoon, then dissipate late on Saturday. Afterwards, weak SE return flow will set up across the basin ahead of the next cold front entering the NW Gulf Saturday night. The front should extend from the Big Bend coast of Florida to near Tampico Sunday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A robust upper-level trough extends from the west coast of Africa across the central Atlantic to the Lesser Antilles and most of the Greater Antilles and into the west- central Caribbean. A surface trough is noted in the SE Caribbean from 11N63W to 15N66W. The upper level and surface trough, along with a plume of moisture in the area, is setting off scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms from the Leeward Islands to the central Caribbean from 15N-19N between 63W-72W. Scattered showers are also moving into the western Caribbean from the Gulf of Honduras southward into Costa Rica. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong trades continuing across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades, with occasional strong winds, are seen throughout the rest of the basin. A strong Bermuda High N of the area will maintain evening-early morning NE gales over S central Caribbean through Sunday morning. A long fetch of fresh to strong trades over the tropical N Atlantic is combining with N swell to produce high seas in the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles. The trades and associated seas will diminish Thursday. A cold front will reach the tropical N Atlantic Saturday and usher in a new round of large long period N swell. This swell should impact the Mona and Anegada Passages late Saturday and Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the Atlantic with two 1025 mb surface highs located near 28N51W and 30N66W. A 1024 mb high is also near 27N28W. An upper level trough is digging across the northwest African coast. A surface trough is analyzed from 25N18W to 18N17W. Scattered showers are moving across the Cabo Verde Islands eastward to Mauritania and Senegal. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the western and central Atlantic. There is also moderate to strong trades south of 22N. A strong Bermuda High over the W Atlantic is maintaining moderate to strong trades south of 22N. These trades combined with some N swell continue to produce high seas south of 22N. The trades and associated seas should diminish Thursday. A cold front will enter the N waters Thursday evening and exit to the E of the region by Saturday evening. The cold front will introduce a new round of large long period N swell. $$ AKR