000 AXNT20 KNHC 151139 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force NE-to-E winds, and sea heights ranging from 13 feet to 17 feet, are being experienced off the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W. Expect gale-force NE to E winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, in more or less the same areas, will be pulsing during the late night and early morning hours, until at least Thursday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 05N09W, to 04N15W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, to 02N23W, to 02N28W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward between 05W and 23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 04N southward from 26W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the 1026 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 30N70W, across Florida and into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, curving from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec to 20N94W, to 22N96W to 24N97W, along the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A weak ridge in the SE United States is promoting tranquil conditions through Thursday. A cold front will move southward into the NE Gulf of Mexico on Thursday evening. The front will become stationary in the NE Gulf on Friday afternoon, and then it will dissipate late on Saturday. Weak SE return flow will become established across the basin, later, and in advance of the next cold front entering the NW Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night. The front will extend from the Big Bend coast of Florida to near Tampico Mexico on Sunday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 250 mb and water vapor satellite imagery show a trough that extends from Hispaniola to Jamaica, to the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea, except for the Greater Antilles and the NE corner of the area, and for the SE corner of the area. Precipitation: Rainshowers are possible, in broken to overcast low level clouds, in the trade wind flow, in many sections of the Caribbean Sea. One surface trough is along 62W/63W, from 12N southward. Precipitation Precipitation: isolated moderate from 14N southward between 56W and 67W. 24-hour rainfall totals, in inches, that are listed for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.61 in Guadeloupe, and 0.38 in Curacao. A strong Bermuda High north of the area will help maintain evening-to-early morning NE gale-force winds in the S central Caribbean Sea through Sunday morning. A long fetch of fresh to strong trade winds in the tropical N Atlantic Ocean, and some N swell, continue to produce high seas in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The trade winds and associated seas should diminish on Thursday. A cold front will reach the tropical N Atlantic Ocean on Saturday, accompanied by a new, large long-period N swell. This swell should impact the Mona Passage and the Anegada Passage late Saturday and Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface low pressure covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward from 43W eastward. A stationary front is along 34N26W, to 32N33W, beyond 33N40W. Areas of broken high level clouds are to the north of the line that passes through 32N55W 30N48W 28N30W beyond 32N16W. An upper level trough passes through 32N13W to 24N21W, to 23N30W, to 21N53W, 21N67W, and beyond Hispaniola, southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the Atlantic Ocean between 60W and 73W, covering the Greater Antilles and surrounding islands. A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 30N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, about 320 nm to the WSW of Bermuda. A surface ridge extends from the 1026 mb high center to 29N48W, and to 28N35W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the Greater Antilles northward and from 16N northward from 35W westward. Broken to overcast high level clouds are within 125 nm on either side of the line from the coastal waters of NE Venezuela near 10N61W to 14N44W to 15N28W, and within 225 nm to 325 nm on either side of the line from 13N29W, crossing the Cabo Verde Islands, beyond 17N16W, into Africa. A strong Bermuda High in the W Atlantic Ocean is maintaining moderate to strong trade winds south of 22N. These trade winds, and some N swell, continue to produce high seas south of 22N. The trade winds and associated seas should diminish on Thursday. A cold front will enter the N waters on Thursday evening. The cold front will continue southward, crossing the region on Saturday evening. The cold front will be accompanied by a new, large long-period N swell. $$ mt