000 AXNT20 KNHC 150000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... Gale-force NE-to-E winds continue in the south-central and southwestern Caribbean Sea off the coast of Colombia and eastern Panama. ASCAT data shows gale force winds from 10N-14N between 74W-79W. Gales are expected to continue in this area through 1200 UTC Wed morning. Winds will be below gale force during the daylight hours Wed. Gales will return Wed night. Wave heights will be 14 to 18 ft today and 10 to 14 ft Wed. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends along the Liberia coast near 04N07W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to the coast of Brazil near 01S44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 17W-32W. Isolated showers and tstorms extend from the Equator to 04N between 16W-30W, with isolated showers elsewhere. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface observations continue to indicate areas of sea fog still present along and within the northern Gulf in the FL Panhandle and near central Texas coast. Areas of fog are forecast to persist at times within 60 nm of shore W of Pensacola Florida through Wed. Surface ridge over the Atlantic Ocean extends into the Gulf of Mexico keeping a east to southeast flow across the basin. The scatterometer data indicates light and gentle winds across the western Gulf from 90W and moderate easterly flow from 90W to the Florida coast. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, from 18N95W to 23N97W, along the coast of Mexico. Isolated showers are near the trough and the ascat winds shows this very well. Areas of fog will persist within 60 nm of shore W of Pensacola Florida through Wed. A high pres ridge will prevail over the northern Gulf through Thu. A cold front will move S over the NE Gulf late Thu night, become stationary on Fri, then dissipate Fri night into Sat as high pres builds over the eastern Gulf. Another cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sat night and exit the SE basin Sun evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid- to upper-level trough axis covers much of the Caribbean Sea. From Dominican Republic to the USVI, scattered showers and tstorms are seen. Comparatively drier air is over the western basin. ASCAT data shows near gale-force trade winds from 10N-18N between 71W-81W and in the Windward Passage. Gales are from 10N- 14N between 74W- 79W. Strong winds prevail elsewhere within the area bounded by 10N76W to 16N60W to 21N60W to 22N83W to 10N83W to 10N76W. Fresh winds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Strong high pressure centered NE of the region will maintain gales over the south-central Caribbean tonight. Then, winds will pulse to gale force during the overnight hours through Sun morning. Elsewhere, strong winds will continue across much of the central and western Caribbean through Sat. Strong to locally near gale force winds will linger for the waters from the Windward Passage to Jamaica through Sat. Large seas in long period NE swell will continue across the region through midweek, and persist over the central Caribbean through Sun night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 mb surface high is centered near 30N61W, leading to ridging across the western half of the Atlantic. Strong trade winds prevail south of 23N between 50W-80W. Fresh trades are from 23N-25N, with moderate trades from 25N-27N. ASCAT pass shows near gale force winds in and near the Windward Passage. Upper-level troughing along 20N between 50W and Hispaniola is helping to induce scattered showers and tstorms south of 21N between 60W-71W. A surface trough along 53W from 08N-12N is also producing scattered showers. A cold front extends from 31N25W to 23N46W. Isolated showers are along the front. In the far E Atlantic, a surface trough from 25N20W to 10N17W is inducing scattered showers over the area extending 400 nm on either side of the trough. Strong high pres over the western Atlc will maintain strong trades across the waters S of 22N through Wed evening. Large seas in long period NE swell will continue for much of the region through Wed. Winds will diminish late Wed through Thu as high pres weakens over the northern waters. A cold front will enter the northern waters late Thu, then continue S across the region through Sat night. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas in large N to NE swell will follow the front. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER